Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Pandits, Nairs, Advisers


While reading Guha's "India After
Gandhi", it was interesting to know about the influence wielded by Kashmiri Pandits during Indira Gandhi's tenure. Collectively known as the 'Pancha Pandavas', these five 'hero's' were -
  1. P.N. Haskar - LSE graduate, a student of mathematics, keenly interested in history (diplomatic & military); Indian ambassador to Austria, first High Commisioner to Nigeria, Dy. High Commisioner to UK (1967) before being called by Indira Gandhi to become her Principal Secretary.
  2. T.N. Kaul - politician turned diplomat
  3. D.P. Dhar - politician turned diplomat
  4. P.N. Dhar - economist turned mandarin
  5. R.N. Kao - policeman turned security analyst; founding Director of RAW

Equally fascinating was the description of V.P. Menon's role - first, before Independence as reforms commissioner and constitutional adviser to successive viceroys (including Lord Mountbatten), and his key role in drafting the Indian Independence Bill. And then his subsequent role in the integration of Indian states, as Secretary to India's first Home Minister, Sardar Patel. He was, according to Guha -

"...a small, alert and ferociously intelligent Malayali from Malabar. Unusually for a man in his position, Menon had come from the ranks. Far from being a member of the elite Indian Civil Service - as other secretaries to the government were - he had joined the government as a clerk and steadily worked his way up...His peers in the ICS derisively called him 'babu Menon', in reference to his lowly origins."


Times, it seems, have changed. Yesterday, the Indian Express came up with a piece under its Monday column, Delhi Confidential, titled, "The More Things Change..." referring to the number Nairs who occupy sensitive positions in the present administration:

  • M.K. Narayanan - former national security adviser (NSA), now governor of West Bengal
  • Shivshankar Menon - MKN's protege; former foreign secretary, present NSA
  • Nirupama Rao - Foreign Secretary
  • G.K Pillai - Home Secretary
  • T.K.A. Nair- Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister
  • (J.N. Dixit - the first NSA was born a Nair before taking his stepfather's surname)

The only name missing in the Express list was Shashi Tharoor. But then, he is neither an advisor nor a bureaucrat. He India's just India's irrepressible twitter-in-chief disguised the Minister of State for External Affairs, committed to unraveling the cocoon of myths & yarns of hypocrisy in the Indian political discourse... :)

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Links / Reference:

Guha, Ramachandra (2007), India After Gandhi [Picador India pp.40-41, 434-435]

"The More Things Change...", Indian Express - Delhi Confidential - 26 Jan 2010 http://www.indianexpress.com/news/the-more-things-change.../571181/

"Manmohan - The Mallu Connection", T.V.R Shenoy, Rediff.com - 2 June 2004



Tuesday, January 19, 2010

International Trade Theories

My head is reeling - I'm just out of a three-hour session dedicated to mathematical derivations of three theorems under International Trade Theory:

  • The Heckscher-Ohlin (Factor-Proportions) Model
  • The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
  • The Rybczynski Theorem

As is usual, my enthusiasm & interest diminished as soon as the discussion moved from the world of real-life, practical problems to the world of 'proof by equations'. What was unusual, however, is that I felt guilty about not paying attention because the logic behind the proofs did look interesting until I lost track and felt sleepy.


I needed to get back to brasstacks, and thankfully there is a website that deals with theory without losing sight of practice.

About International Trade, it said, "lessons that are most interesting and valuable are those that teach something either counterintuitive, or at least contrary to popular opinions". Here are some counterintuitive points -

1. The main support for free trade arises because free trade can raise aggregate economic efficiency.
2. Trade theory shows that some people will suffer losses in free trade.
3. A country may benefit from free trade even if it is less efficient than all other countries in every industry.
4. A domestic firm may lose out in international competition even if it is the lowest-cost producer in the world.
5. Protection may be beneficial for a country.
6. Although protection can be beneficial, the case for free trade remains strong.

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More at -
* Intl. Trade Theory & Policy by Steven M. Suranovic - http://internationalecon.com/Trade/tradehome.php

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Hero Hirani

Interesting articles on the movie director, Rajkumar Hirani and his latest blockbuster, "3 Idiots" :


* No Idiots - Rajni Mohanty Iyer in the New York Times/IHT (15 Jan. 2009)


* The Doctor of Sweet Angst - Knight in Comic Armour - Shoma Chaudhury in Tehelka (18 Jan., 2009)



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Saturday, January 16, 2010

Random Pics

Now

2+2

Bright Crow


Ice Needles



Windy Day


Koban (Police Post)

Fireman


Sunset


Coffee-time

Friday, January 15, 2010

Making Mochi at Azuma


At Azuma Yochien (kindergarten) I had expected the event to some kind of `fathers day` with all the daddies helping make Mochi (new year spl. rice cakes), for the kids. I was expecting big, boisterous crowds but when I reached there, all was calm and quiet - the kids, in caps and face-masks, were getting ready for lunch-time and there was no sign of any Mochi anywhere.

I must have been lingering around looking lost when a staff-member spotted me and led me to the principal`s room where there were four (only!) other dads sipping green-tea and waiting for the action to begin.

It took me a while to get a hang of things but the whole process was something as follows -- rice was being cooked on two stoves outside and two large mortars (usu, made of solid, heavy wood) and mallets (kine) of assorted sizes were readied on the side. First we carried the mortars out and placed them on two straw mats in the playground. A sticky block of cooked Mochi rice was then placed on the wet mortars.

For a while this rice was just kneaded using the mallets by two of us just pushing it down as we walked around. And then, after the rice had reached a certain consistency, the pounding started with two of us banging away alternately while a third man gingerly scooped the rice paste, which was getting smoother and stickier until it was one steaming hot, silky white glob.

Once the Mochi was ready it was the turn for the kids to try their hand at it using miniature mallets while a photographer recorded the event for posterity. Of the two groups in the kindergarten, the juniors were a lot more enthusiastic - standing around in a circle chanting `Gambaare! Gambaare!`. The seniors (6 year-old`s), on the other hand, had a bored, been-there-done-that attitude about the whole thing, and just chatted around until it was time for them to return to their class.

The whole process was good fun - for the first 30 minutes. The heavy wooden mallet had a nice feel to it and was good to see the sticky rice squelching under each blow and bits of it splattering on my specs and face.Then, as the first round went into the second, third and the fourth, the mallet became heavier and too slippery to hold with one hand; my right arm started hurting, bits of skin on my palm tore away leaving a bloody mess and my fingers just refused to budge. Thankfully, the fifth was the last round and I was happy to finally clean my hands under stinging, ice-cold tap water, and recuperate.

This was my second tryst with Mochi-making this winter. The first one was with the Michikawa`s (my host-family) at Mimori village near Mt.Tsukuba. At the village we had used an outdoor firewood-stove to cook the rice but instead of heavy, wooden usu-kine, we had used a kneading machine. Coming to think of it, it was so much more convenient - the only muscle-work required was for chopping the firewood and for cleaning the machine after each round!


The Michikawa`s had offered the first round of `maru-mochi`s` (round mochi`s) to the family altar inside the house; the second one to the dieties residing in miniature shrines under a big tree outside, and the third one was for friends and family. The last set was distributed in two forms - sweet lumps dunked in brown sugar-bean powder (delicious!) and the second with a pungent radish paste.

It was a great experience - but I`m glad Mochi is made only once a year! :)

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Links:

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Innovation in Israel

After a glimpse of Taiwan a couple of days ago, here are some interesting facts about Israel -

  • With a population of just 7 million, Israel attracts more Venture Capital than France & Germany combined.
  • Between 1980 and 2000, Egyptians registered 77 patents in the US. Saudi`s registered 171. Israel registred 7,652.
  • Israel has more high-tech start-ups per capita than any other nation on earth.

Wonder how many were registered by Indians during the same period...

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References / Links:

Friday, January 08, 2010

Economics and Deception

The closer you get to Economics the more you wonder why some people take it so seriously. They call it a `science` and yet, most of the mathematical modelling that goes into it is based on assumptions that are anything but solid.

Aruna Roy summed up this dilemma pretty well in one article -


There are two current myths that need serious examination. The first is that the economists have scientific answers and know best. The second is what the news and media now project—that people are largely mindless absorbers of glitter. Both these insult the intelligence of people.

Economics is not mathematics, it is more interpretative than absolute. Every economic argument has a counter argument. The power behind economic positions is determined by political ideology, the backing of power, money—sometimes ill-begotten—and a variety of motivations. The tragedy is that this group, which prides itself on its objectivity, has become the new God. Opinions are made by selective perception and, in their language, by data, sample size and schedules. The media helps reinforce the view that this is the whole truth.

Till two decades ago, it was accepted internationally that economic designs emanated from political priorities. But today we have conveniently elevated economics to a science, and we peddle it—consciously, hypocritically and ruthlessly for the well-being and reinforcement of a ruling elite, far more frightening than Big Brother ever was in Orwell’s 1984. We need to honestly question ourselves. As the Mahatma said, “There is enough for everyone’s need, not for everyone’s greed.”
Joan Robinson, a Cambridge don who was consulted by P.C. Mahalanobis while framing India's Second Five Year Plan, made another interesting point - "The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists."


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Links / Reference

Taiwan - Quietly Brilliant

Two separate news-items - both about the dynamics of the mobilephone market - caught my attention today:

It's interesting that even though Nokia sells more earns less. While Apple simply designs ONE phone and has it built in Taiwan by Foxconn, Nokia designs and manufactures dozens of models and has factories in several countries even though the most expensive models are still made in Finland. (The Economist, 4 Jan 2010)
Google entered the smartphone market with NEXUS ONE, which runs on the web giant's Android operating system and is made by HTC of Taiwan. (Ditto)

In this battle of corporate goliaths one country is the clear winner - Taiwan - a country with a population of 23 million (~Delhi+Mumbai) and a land area of 35,980 sq.km (Kerala is 38,863 sq.km).

Taiwanese companies like HTC and Foxconn are not the exception - they are just two of the numerous, unglamorous companies that keep the global high-tech marketplace humming. Here are the prominent ones -

  • Quanta Computer - the No. 1 global maker of notebook PCs and a key supplier to Dell (DELL ) and Hewlett-Packard;
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM )- the biggest chip foundry on the planet, an essential partner to U.S. companies such as Qualcomm and Nvidia (NVDA );
  • AU Optronics (AUTO ), - big supplier of liquid-crystal display panels;
  • Hon Hai Precision Industry (aka Foxconn) - makes everything from PC components to Sony's (SNE ) PlayStation 2, and which is a fast-rising rival to Flextronics International (FLEX ), the world's biggest contract manufacturer;
  • HTC - a pioneer in mobile hardware with a catchline that could represent all Taiwanese Industries - `quietly brilliant`.

In 2005, revenues of Taiwan's 25 key tech companies was about $122 billion. To put this figure in perspective, the whole of Reliance Group had a combined revenue of $28 billion and Tata Motors, $16 billion.

How did Taiwan position its technology industry to play such a key role in the global economy?

By what master-stroke of pragmatism do Taiwanese companies manage to outsource most of their production to factories in mainland China - their biggest political foe?

History gives a part of the answer - Japanese rule prior to and during World War II brought forth changes in the public and private sectors of the economy, most notably in the area of public works, which enabled rapid communications and facilitated transport throughout much of the island. The Japanese also improved public education and made the system compulsory for all Taiwanese citizens during this time.

Also, when Chiang Kai-shek`s Koumintang (KMT) government fled to Taiwan in 1949, it brought the entire gold reserve and the foreign currency reserve of mainland China to the island which stabilized prices and reduced hyperinflation. More importantly, as part of its retreat to Taiwan, KMT brought with them the intellectual and business elites from mainland China. The KMT government instituted many laws and land reforms that it had never effectively enacted on mainland China.

A more relevant explanation was found in this old article in the Business Week:

The island combines an entrepreneurial culture with effective government involvement. The Hsinchu-based Industrial Technology Research Institute is a collection of labs that works closely with local companies. It has 4,300 engineers striving to match the best that the West, Japan, and Korea can offer in fields such as microelectronics and optoelectronics. The government-backed Institute has alliances with scientists from MIT, the University of California at Berkeley, and Carnegie Mellon University in the U.S. Companies such as TSMC and cross-town rival United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC ) have their origins in ITRI technology.

`Effective government involvement`...now that is a difficult dance!!


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References / Links:

Thursday, January 07, 2010

Getting Used to Canon PowerShot G11

Amazon has delivered the G11 a lot faster than I expected!

I had placed the order on 5 Jan., and the confirmation email from Amazon had said that delivery would take place on 7 Jan. However, I received a call from Sanawa Couriers at 11:00AM on 6 Jan. itself and I soon found myself looking at a neat little case strapped to the bottom of an oversize carton.

This boxy, black camera with retro dials reminded me of my first camera - a Kodak-Kroma film camera gifted by B'man in 1993. The G11 was, of course, a lot heavier (360g) than either the Kroma or IXUS-80, and had a much more chunky, solid feel to it.

The User Manual in the box was only in Japanese, but thankfully, the whole thing can be downloaded from Canon-USA at -
Now, I'm checking out the Guide and brushing up on the basics of manual control from BobAtkins.com, BestPhotoLessons, TheTechLounge, and an Apple (!) site - Aperture- Digital Photography Fundamentals.

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Other Links -
* Canon Camera Museum - http://www.canon.com/camera-museum/index.html

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Hunt for a New DigiCam

The Canon 860-IS we had picked up from Palika Bazaar in New Delhi in December 2008, is still working but only just.

The camera has survived numerous falls but the day after it dropped from my pocket and crashed on to the granite slabs of Shivananda Ashram at Rishikesh, its LCD-TFT screen had developed a 'dead-spot'. The pictures continued to be pretty good though. But recently something seems to have gone wrong with its CCD itself. Any contrast of brightness seems to spill into rest of the frame, making the pictures look like this -

Shifting to the manual mode seems to help but the images lose their depth and contrast.

So, two years and 7000+ pics later it was time to look for another camera...but the big question was - should it be a 'replacement' or an 'upgradation'? Another compact digicam or a Digital SLR?

After a few window-shopping trips to KS-Denchi and Yodobashi Camera (Akihabara / Ueno), I shortlisted three compact camera's and two digital-SLR's: Compacts - Nikon P6000, Canon G11 and Lumix (Panasonic) GF1, and among DSLRs - Nikon D-90 and Canon EOS 7D.
  • Nikon P6000 was neat and light with a built-in GPS device; it was launched last year and the reviews were mixed.
  • Canon G11 was launched just a few months ago and was upgrade from G10 which was reputed to the favourite compact for professionals, war-correspondents and fashion-designers. This model had reduced the MegaPixel count from 12 to 10 and added a swivel screen. Price - Yen 54,800.
  • Panasonic Lumix GF1 was just a month old and the pro-photo mags were full of glowing reviews about is SLR-sized sensor. But it was expensive at Y62,000 and I was not too thrilled about the fact that it was being promoted as a `ladies camera`.

The SLRs were, of course, beautiful pieces of equipment but they were expensive (Yen-80,000+... just the body!) and heavy. It was no fun lugging around a 1kg camera everywhere.

Since I wanted somthing that I could carry in my bag everyday the expensive SLRs were out of the reckoning straightaway. The Nikon P6000 was nice but it had features like the GPS which I didn't really need. I would have loved to have the Lumix GF1 but it was as expensive as some SLRs.

While I was gravitating towards Canon G11 and brooding about the prices, Go.Y suggested that I take a look at kakaku.com , an online retailer. Everything was selling here at a surprisingly generous discount. The G11 was Yen 41,700 here - about Y-15,000 less than the prices being offered by huge retailers like Yodobashi-Camera. Even after considering the point-card system at Y-C (10%, so a 'discount' of Yen 5400) it was much more expensive than the prices being offered by retailers at kakaku.com .

Was there some catch? Were the kakaku-retailers selling the equipment without the standard accessories like the battery-pack and cables? (This is what folks at Palika Bazaar would do!).
I asked around and learnt that people purchased regularly from kakaku.com had faced no such problems - the price difference was perhaps due to the huge overheads for off-line retailers. The clincher was that online purchases could be paid through COD (cash on delivery), for a nominal extra fee.

So, finally, today I placed an order on amazon.co.jp through kakaku.com ...now I can`t wait to get my hands on the new camera! :P

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Update and Cautionary Note    (3 August 2010)

Seven months and ~3,400 clicks later the buttons on my G11 suddenly stopped working. Despite full charge, none of the buttons - "on/off", "menu", "display"...nothing worked except the "playback" button. And when this was pressed the calender-cubes animation would come on the screen. If you pushed the same button once again, the playback function would get activated. But everything else, including the lens cover, remained unresponsive.

The software needed a reset but neither the use-manual not the internet revealed any solutions. One user on DP-Review seemed to have encountered a similar problem under "Wierd Canon G11 Issue".

Luckily, I happened to be working in Tokyo now. So I took my camera to the Canon Service Centre at Ginza, and they repaired it within four working days, for free. It seems to be working just fine.



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Links:




Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Kinugawa Onsen

Add Image
"Kinugawa" - what an interesting name...Angry-Ogre River!

The entire economy of this little town seems rests on tourism with most of its large hotels located along the steep cliffs of the angry-ogre. Apparantly, it had seen better times - once you're out of the neat railway station, you notice that most of the buildings have this mildewed, ill-maintained look about them. But the Onsens (public baths) here definitely worth the experience!

The very thought of relaxing in a pool of 44C water, watching a full moon hiding behind the snow covered pines... :)

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Links:

Nikko's Shrines


For foreigners visiting 'heritage' monuments in Japan there ought to be a caveat - "Keep your expectations low; actual sites may be substantially different from the calender pictures you may have seen!".

Perhaps my opinions have been coloured by monuments and temples in India, but in Japan there does seem to an inverse relationship between hype and reality . In 2007, I had gone to see the famous temples of Kyoto loaded with maps and guidebooks. The golden pavilion at Kinkaku-ji had turned out to be an ornate, gilded house sitting by a little pond and the 'silver pavilion', Ginkaku-ji was just one of the many cottage set amidst a pretty little garden. At the same time, the unglamorous Todaiji temple at Nara not only had an imposing presence but also the calm, meditative atmosphere one expects to see in a grand place of worship.

It was deja vu at Nikko. The temples - most of them 'National Treasures' that had been created between 1600-1800 AD to deify military dictators (Shoguns), were just over-decorated, modest-sized buildings, set on a nice hillside.

We had reached Nikko using the private Tobu line from Asakusa, Tokyo. The "Heritage Bus-Pass" (Yen 1200) we picked at Tobu-Nikko station dropped us at Omotesando, from where a short uphill walk brought us in front of the Rinno-ji Buddhist temple. A flight of stone steps takes you to the temple entrance and another set of stairs brings you below the ground level from where you look up to see three large gold-lacquered images eyeing you - Kannon (goddess of mercy & compassion), Senju (1000-armed Kannon) and Amida Nyorai.



Further up the slope from Rinno-ji is the Tosho-gu Shinto shrine, built to deify Tokugawa Iyeyasu (1543-1616), a military leader was largely responsible for unifying the warring fiefs of Japan. Apparently it took 15,000 artisans two years to finish the construction. But somehow the whole place looked garish and loud compared to Taiyuin-byo which enshrines Iyeyasu's grandson, Iemitsu(1604-51). I loved Taiyuin's quieter setting amidst towering cedars; the little cobbled courtyard where a square patch of melted snow betrayed the presence of a underground pump; and the cool wooded steps leading to a fragrant prayer chamber that had a calm meditative 'presence'.
In India grand sites sit in a sea of mediocrity - to reach Taj Mahal in Agra or the magnificent temples of South India, you have to wade through noisy, ugly & chaotic urban debris. In Japan it seems to be just the opposite - you glide through a super-efficient transportation system, forested mountains, neat stations & streets, and walk past magnificent old trees to see places that are, well, perhaps not worth the trouble.

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Portraits of Nikko painted by the Russian painter, Vasily Vereshchagin (1842-1904):

"Entrance to a Temple in Nikko" (oil on canvas)
"Shinto Temple in Nikko" (oil on canvas)

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Power, Culture & Coups in Africa


`We learn history not in order to know how we behave or how to succeed, but to know who we are` - Leszek Kolakowski


There is much to learn from Africa...especially when it comes to understanding the long-term impact of the `colonial hangover` that afflicts many parts of the world...

Like most former colonial territories, almost all countries in Africa are set on borders that were defined by the power struggles among the former imperial powers of Europe. During phase referred to as "Old Colonialism" (16-19 century) most rulers of Western Europe handed out 'charters' to private trading companies, with an eye on the easy profits to fill their coffers. So people who had initially set sail hoping to undercut the Arab spice traders, and to `reveal` Christianity to the pagans, turned themselves into the first generation the most unscrupulous multinational companies ever.

On top of the pile were the Dutch East India Company (aka VOC) and the English East India Company (EIC). For nearly 200 years VOC handed out an annual dividend of no less than 18% to its investors. High profitability led them to acquire quasi-governmental powers, including the ability to wage war, negotiate treaties, coin money, and establish colonies. The fate of entire continents hung on the decisions of the company`s board of directors sitting in Amstredam or London. (When the rise of EIC pushed the Dutch East India Company into bankrupcy in 1800, a survey revealed that the whole of Africa was being controlled by about 10,000 Europeans, 95% of whom were based in Cape Town!)

Later, during `New Colonialim`, European governments took over the operations of these MNCs. Two scholars - Friedrich Ratzel (a German geographer) and Rudolf Kjellen (Swedish political scientist), came up with the idea of the `continental block` - an idea enshrined in the Theory of Geopolitics. According to them, states should grow and evolve as blocks, with each block being self-sufficient (economically, militarily). From this, came Ratzel’s Seven Laws on the Growth of States:

  1. The space of States grows with the expansion of the population having the same culture.
  2. Territorial growth follows other aspects of development.
  3. A State grows by absorbing smaller units.
  4. The frontier is the peripheral organ of the State that reflects the strength and growth of the state; hence, it is not permanent.
  5. States in the course of their growth seek to absorb politically valuable territory.
  6. The impetus for growth comes to a primitive State from more highly developed civilization.
  7. The trend towards territorial growth is contagious and increases in the process of transmission.

These ideas provided not only the ideological backing for colonial expansion but World Wars that came much later. Blocks were to be an enlarged version of the colonies acquired by the European powers and included Africa, South & S East Asia.

Therefore in keeping with Ratzel`s `laws`, the colonies were administered in such a way that higher education was open only to the collaborating elites. This was a typical `policy of cultural assimilation` followed by the colonists with the explicit purpose of `keeping the natives as natives`, and of ruling them with this elite who identified themselves completedly with the colonial master`s. Elementary education and training in basic skills was encouraged while higher education was reserved for the elites who learnt about the history and cultural traditions of the colonial master`s, and to look down upon almost everything that was their own.

One of the few universities that provided a neutral form of higher education was Howard University in Washington DC -- an institution that encouraged a less doctrinaire higher education to people in European colonies. From this university came an Assistant Professor named Kwame Nkrumah, who was to turn around the ideology of the colonisers to start the `Pan-African Movement`. His book, `Africa Must Unite` set the tone for his campaign and was quite effective in convincing other African countries that they ought to be ruling themselves, while preserving the artificial borders that had been drawn by the colonisers.

Nkrumah returned to Gold Coast, fought and won independence from the British, and renamed the country `Ghana`. But within a few years, he was overthrown by the military and his vision of independent, economically strong Africa was tossed aside. This became the typical pattern in other new African states -- of democratic forces being overwhelmed by the armed forces. This brings us back to the question: why are there so many coup d'état`s in Africa?

A part of the answer lies in a strategy followed by the former European colonisers of dividing civilian and military power between different tribes. So even after independence, internal ethnic frictions were easily transformed into a confrontation between the military and the civilians leadership who came from different ethnic groups.

Since the former colonists continued to give generous scholarships to promising youngsters from both the military and the civil administration, they continued to weild a strong cultural influence over the ruling elite in the newly independent African countries. But still, there was a difference -- Ali Mazrui, a leading African scholar based in University of Binghamton, NY, has observed that the military leaders who mounted coup-detat in Africa were usually traditionalists, who strongly believed that African should be ruled by culturally independent people, rather than `pseudo-Europeans`.

So this combination of a power structure inherited from the colonizers (dividing power among tribes) and the lure of traditionalism proved to be a fatal combination for the new democracies. In Uganda, for instance, Idi Amin belonged to the Kakwa tribe that had been excluded from the civil power structure for generations (the forte of Acholi and Lange tribes). So when he got the chance, he ousted Milton Obote`s `pseudo-European` leadership and seized power in 1971. But once in power, it was soon apparant that politics and civil administration is not a game that a soldier can master so easily!

The same pattern was repeated in Congo (Zaire) under Mobuto, Ivory Coast under HouphouëtBoigny and other newly formed African nation-states.

So, Africa seems no different from what we see even today in much of Asia - the colonial legacy is a pretty difficult thing to overcome - especially if it has embedded itself in the minds of a ruling elite, hollowing out much of their own sense of self esteem, turning them into pathetic `brown-sahibs` whose self-worth depends on recognition and acclaim from their former masters.

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References:

MILITARY COUPS IN AFRICA--THE AFRICAN "NEO-COLONIALISM" THAT IS SELF-INFLICTED- http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1985/WJ.htm

Coup Traps: Why does Africa have so many Coups d’Etat? - http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/0/4/0/8/5/p40854_index.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geopolitics

Colorado-U Geoplitics Course PP: http://www.colorado.edu/geography/courses/geog_4712_sm03/lectures/6_05geopGerman.pdf

The Black Bourgeoise: http://ecarson.wordpress.com/2007/11/19/the-black-bourgeoisie/

American Library of Congress - Country Studies: http://international.loc.gov/frd/cs/cshome.html

Sunday, December 06, 2009

Morning

Photos taken around 7:00AM today at Ichinoya, University of Tsukuba...

Justify FullRain clouds retreat...

Iigiri - Idesia polycarpia Maxim.




The Cherry tree at Hyotaro Ike (lake), Ichinoya


Hills

Iigiri berries...

Friday, November 27, 2009

Truth, Justice and Reconciliation

What is the right thing to do after a conflict to prevent its recurrence?

Earlier this week, on my way to UNU-Tokyo, I had been poring through some material given out by Prof. Sukehiro Hasegawa, for his session on "Truth, Justice and Reconciliation in a Post-Conflict Society". All the four papers were about the conflict in Timor-Leste, and after going through them, I had been quite convinced that the UN had been nitpiking on legal issues at the cost of long-term peace in the region.

Or was it? Prof. Hasegawa's session turned out to be quite thought-provoking. Firstly, because he was no ivory-tower academic - he had spent most of his career in UN peace-keeping operations in Somalia, Rwanda and finally at Timor-Leste. And secondly, because he did not claim to have the right solutions for ensuring sustainable peace in intra-national or international conflicts.

The moral dilemma facing peace-keepers was illustrated with a simple example.

You are standing by a bend on a road. Just behind you, 10 school-children are
crossing the road. Next to you is an old man and suddenly you see a huge truck
hurtling down the road at 100kmph towards the schoolchildren. You have the followng three choices -
  1. Do nothing - let the truck plough into the kids;
  2. Jump in font on the truck, get run-over and - hopefully - save the 10
    kids;
  3. Push the old man on the highway, raise alarm and save the kids.

Now, assume that you don't have option-2...what is the right thing to do?

According to John Rawls's 'Theory of Justice', the most important consideration is the issue of 'fairness'. You can agree to an injustice to avoid a greater injustice. But fairness and justice to whom? - the old-man or the children?

Immanuel Kant and Jeremy Bentham has proposed a more utilitarian approach leading to "categorical justice" or "consequential justice", according to which the right thing to do was to favor the option that gave the greatest happiness to the greatest number of people.

In other words, option-3. Sacrifice the old man and save the then children.

And then there is the much older traditon of "retributive justice" supported by the Law of Moses and the Code of Hammurabi - 'eye for eye, tooth for tooth'. A clear predictability of rules and standards is necessary for a society to flourish. If you do not punish the guilty in a consistent manner - irrespective of his social status or 'connections' - there is no effective deterrence. (This brings to mind the pathetic record of the Indian justice system - The Sikh Massacre, 1984; the Nanda BMW hit-and-run case, the Jessica Lal murder case, Gujarat Pogrom, 2002)

In recent history, one of the most prominent opponents to the tradition of retributive justice was, of course, Nelson Mandela's 'Truth and Reconciliation Commission'. There is little doubt that this approach has been successful in dealing with the ghosts of aparthied but it is not something that is easily replicated. Unfortunately, we just don't have people with the stature of Mandela or Desmond Tutu in all the conflict zones of the world.

The UN, therefore, disagrees with Mandela's approach and is more inclined towards the idea of retributive-justice. To erase the "culture of impunity", the guilty have to be held responsible. And this is the approach that was being followed in Kosovo, Rwanda and Timor-Leste.

In the Balkans it was relatively easier to capture the "big fish" and put them on trail. In Timor, all the big-fish slipped away to Indonesia and when the Indonesian courts put them on trail, they were found to be be innocent. But of course.

One of the elements of the broader concept of a fair trial is the principle of equality of arms, which requires each party to be given a reasonable opportunity to present his or her case under conditions that do not place him or her at a substantial disadvantage vis-à-vis his opponent. The prosecution and defence has to be equally balanced.

In the Indonesian courts, the difference between defence and prosection was that of an elephant and a mouse. The prosecution didn't stand a chance. (Apparantly it was just the opposite at the Timor-Leste trails, but this point was not clarified.)

Amidst all the debates and discussions, the two main parties - Timor-Leste and Indonesia - just want to leave the past behind and move on. According to the Jose Ramos-Horta, what the country needs is schools, hospitals and roads. "We don't want internationals or foreigners to come and meddle...many Timorese are fed up with so many foreigners ordering us around".

If the two affected parties don't insist on justice and retribution, why are billions being spent on the international justice system? (Japan pays $1.5b of $7.5b; USA 22% -- the numbers need to be verified).

This is again not the first time that countries are tiring of international justice. In the context of the 14 American states seeking independence from Britain, Baron Montesquieu had said that "collective interest takes precedence over the existing justice system".

Is there a better alternative to the existing process (Truth > Justice > Reconciliation > Peace) ? After WW2, there were the Nuremberg Trails in Germany and the similar trails in Japan. About 10 Japanese officers were found to be guilty and hanged, and reparations were paid to many countries. One can say that 'justice' was administered, but did it really lead to reconciliation and peace? China and Korea continue to get rankled by perceived weak link between Truth and Justice here...

So what is the right thing to do?

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References:

John Rawls - http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/rawls/

Jeremy Bentham - http://homepage.newschool.edu/het//profiles/bentham.htm

Retributive Justice - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retributive_justice

Code of Hammurabi - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Code_of_Hammurabi

Law of Moses - http://www.bga.com/~wdoud/topics/lawofmoses.html

Equality of Arms - http://www.fittedin.com/forensic-science/99-equality-of-arms.html

Interview with Timor-Leste President, Jose Ramos-Horta, conducted by TVTL (21 Sep)

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Natto Bachao!

"Food Crisis - Save Natto!" - this was the title of a presentation given by a classmate at UNU today.

Natto is traditional Japanese food made from fermented soya beans. Ibaraki prefecture is well known for it.

I'm not too sure if the data was reliable but it was interesting to know that only 5% of Natto consumed in Japan is made from domestically grown soybeans. Most of the beans is imported from USA (71%) and Brazil (13%) and Canada (7%).

Apparantly 4.4 billion packs of Natto is consumed every year in a country of 0.1 billion people.

However, a lot of questions came up from this presentation - What is the volume / value of soyabeans imports to Japan? How is it that imported soyabean is kosher for the Japanese when they are so touchy about rice imports?

The answers, unfortunately, were not too convincing.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Covell's Music

What will happens if you enroll for a course titled "Normative Theory in Comparative Policy" delivered by a professor who loves Audrey Hepburn, cricket, Tintin comics and western classical music?

Your learn less about policy and more about music and movies! :]

Here are some of the few pearls I could gather

Half a Sixpence - musical comedy by Tommy Steele ; URL - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half_a_Sixpence

If the Rain's Got to Fall - URL http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJVIuTBsnsc

Mozart - Cosi fan tutte: Act II Happy is the man...sweet repo; URL - http://ml.naxos.jp/album/CHAN3152-54

HG Wells - "Kips" - young man, finace is fortune
Hymn - Guide me O Great Redeemer (From Ronder, Wales)

WagnerGilbert & Sullivan"All the Saints""He who would true valor seek""So long as i am singing"

"Good Fellows" - movie by Martin Scorsce
"Gone are the days" - Charles Foster

NB: What do Cliff Richards and Vivien Leigh have in common? - they were both born in India.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Timeline - Japanese History

This is just a ready reference, for the events leading Japan from a fragmented feudal entity to the modern nation-state of today.

~ 600AD – At the beginning of the seventh century, Empress Suiko sends a mission to the Sui court in China, with a memorial that began, “The offspring of heaven in the land where the sun rises offers a letter to the offspring of the heaven where the sun sets”. Perhaps the first attempt by Japan to address China on equal terms.

660 AD – Internally disunited Japan fears the specter of an expansive Tang empire in China that, in alliance with Japan’s old ememy, the Korean kingdom of Silla, destroys two other Korean kingdoms of Paekche and Koguryo.

672 AD – Silla in Korea breaks ties with Tang China and seizes control of the entire Korean peninsula…..Japan responds by borrowing Chinese central institutional models in a bid to strengthen itself.

1274 – First Mongol invasion – Kublai Khan against the Kamakura feudal government. A night after the battle of Hakata Bay (Nov. 19), a typhoon destroys the Mongol fleet (~200 ships) off the coast of Fukuoka.

1281 – Second Mongol invasion, again using hastily built Chinese ships. This time 100,000 of 140,000 men (~70%) are killed in a storm off Kyushu. The storms are christened Kamikaze (Divine Wind). The invasions forge a national identity; Militarist Rinzai Zen Buddhism of Hojo Tokimune and his Zen master Bukko, become popular.

1400's (15th Century) Shogun Ashikaga Yoshimitsu accepts investiture by the Ming emperor and thus obtained sanction for a very profitable trade. The Shogun is criticized by the royalty.

After Yoshimitsu’s death his son – the next Shogun – discontinues relations with the Ming, almost prompting Emperor Cheng-tsu to attack Japan. The next Shogun restores diplomatic relations and official trade continues for more than a century before ending in 1547.

1467-1568: Warring States Period – complete breakdown of central authority.

1547 – Japan discontinues official trade with China

1600-1868: Tokugawa Era – Japan tries to establish its own international system by claiming a central position in East Asian sphere by asserting that the Ryukus, Korea, Siam and others were sending tributes to Japan. Peace is imposed by a coalition of feudal lords.

1641 - All Westerners are banished from Japan. For the next two centuries, Japan is free from Western influence, except for at the port of Nagasaki, which Japan allowed Dutch merchant vessels to enter on a limited basis.

1700’s – Industrial revolution begins in England

1700’s – Hideyoshi’s brief and abortive invasion of Korea in the 16th century (the first recorded instance of Japan's attempt at overseas’ conquest)

1813 – Kaiho Seiryo (Confucian scholar) comments that competition among domains had come to focus on trade in a zero-sum game akin to warfare.

1815 – The beginning of Pax Brittanica after the Napoleanic Wars. Napolean is defeated at Waterloo and now Britain emerged as the uncontested world superpower.

1836 - Henry Wheaton’s classic, “Elements of International Law” (1836 – first ed.). Reflecting values and interests of Western civilization, it leads theorists to set a “Standard of civilization” - a sort of benchmark for non-European states to be called 'civilized'. This includes (1) guaranteed rights of private property, (2) freedom of trade, travel and religion, (3) Effective system of law, courts and political organization.

1840-1842 - Opium Wars in China

1853Commodore Matthew Perry arrives with his flotilla of black-ships demanding trade – undermines the fragmented and inefficient Tokugawa regime, ultimately leading to its overthrow by warlords from Choshu and Satsuma domains.

1856-1858 - Arrow War in China – expanded the number of treaty ports in the north and the interior for Britain – after securing these, the imperialists sought to shore up the Ching government in order to maintain a stable environment for trade and investment.
- treaties signed on terms of diplomatic equality, thus ending the Chinese tration of superiority

1856 – Townsend Harris, first American diplomatic representative to Japan, arrives. Two years later, the 'Treaty of Amity & Commerce' (an unequal treaty) is signed giving the westerners' extra-territorial rights at five ports opened for trade – Hakodate, Nagasaki, Hyogo (Kobe) and Kanagawa (Yokohama).

1858-59: The Ansei Purge - 'loyalist' followers of the Mito Critique are arrested or executed under the orders of the shogunate chief councilor, Ii Naosuke.

1859: Ii Naosuke is assasinated by samurai (17 from Mito, 1 from Satsuma)

1863-64: Battle for Shimonoseki - Joint naval action by Britain, France, Netherlands and USA against the Choshu domain, in response to the imperial/loyalist 'order to expel barbarians'

1868-69: Boshin War - Civil war between the Tokugawa shogunate and the loyalist dissidents (those seeking return of political power to the imperial court)

1868: Meiji Restoration; the Meiji emperor reign - 1868-1912

1869 – 17th Nov. – Opening of the Suez canal – transition from sailing ship to steamship – London-based Intl monetary system

1871 – Newly established Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs draft the first, typical unequal treaty with China to obtain MFN concessions made to western powers. But could only obtain a Treaty of Amity – but this was the first treaty establishing Japan’s titular equality with China.

1871-1873 - Iwakura mission to Europe & America.

1876 – Japanese forces impose the Treaty of Kanghwa on the Koreans (the first such treaty)– accords Japan the privileges of open ports, extraterritoriality and tariff controls.

1880-mid: USA overtakes Britain as the world’s largest manufacturing production.

1881- Political crisis in Japan over the choice of the type of government – liberal, English-type or the more authoritarian, Prussian-style.

1891 – Russia decides to build the Trans-Siberian Railway.

1894 – Western powers recognize effectiveness of reforms and agree to sign treaties ending extra-territorial privileges in Japan.

1894 – Two weeks after revision of unequal treaties was achieved, Japan declares war on China.

1894-95: First Sino-Japanese war.

1895-1910 – Japanese penetration of Korea;

1895 - Treaty of Shimonoseki – China cedes Taiwan and recognizes Korean independence; leases Liaotung Peninsula in southern Manchuria (+ indemnity + impressive commercial concessions), to Japna. Japan becomes a full participant in the framework of imperialism;

1895, April 23 – Triple Intervention: Russia, France and Germany force Japan to retro-cede Liaotung P to China – demonstrates to Japan the need for alliances;

1902 – Anglo-Japanese Alliance – part of Britian’s effort of ‘perclusive’ imperialism to shore up its diplomatic and strategic position in East Asia through treaties with USA and Japan;

1904, Feb 8: Russo-Japanese war begins with a surprise Japanese submarine attack on the Russian fleet at Port Arthur;

1906-1910: Germany surpasses Britain’s manufacturing production. Britain loses lead in “second industrial revolution” in electricity, chemicals and steel;

1910 – Japan annexes Korea after brutally suppressing nascent Korean nationalism;


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References:

* Japan Rising (Kenneth Pyle, PublicAffairs in Paper)

Thursday, November 12, 2009

UN & the Gen-Next of Ethnic Cleansers


"JBT Marg" is a prominent road in New Delhi, named after one of the founders of the Non Aligned Movement (NAM), and the chief architect of 'Second Yugoslavia', Josip Bronz Tito. By some strange coincidence, both the road and the leader have come to represent lost causes.

JBT Marg was a recent witness to an ill conceived and poorly executed urban transportation project (BRT Corridor) and the NAM has now become defunct. But both these are mundane, irrelevant events compared to the tragedy that has unfolded after Tito's Yugoslavia splintered into half-a-dozen small republics :

  1. Socialist Republic of Bosnia & Herzegovina (Pop.- 3.8m)
  2. Socialist Republic of Croatia (4.7m)
  3. Socialist Republic of Madeconia (2.m)
  4. Socialist Republic of Montenegro (0.6m)
  5. Socialist Republic of Serbia (9.5m) [Also Socialist Autonomous Province of Kosovo (1.5m) and Socialsit Autonomous Province of Vojvodina (1.9m)]
  6. Socialist Repoublic of Slovenia (1.9m)

This piece is about the rather unusual role of the United Nations in Bosnia & Herzegovina (BiH).

In 2007, a UNDP/Oxford study found in BiH, the lowest levels of social trust ever measured. It was "virtually non-existent" - even lower than in Iraq.

BiH gained independence in 1992, and following the Dayton Peace Agreement of 1995, established one of the most compex political and administrative systems in Europe. The country has 3 presidents, 13 governance units, 13 parliaments, 150 ministries and 137 municipalities...all this in a country which has a third of Delhi's population!

In an attempt to keep the three main ethnic groups - Bosniaks, Serbs and Slovaks - in good humor, the country has three different education systems. The constitution states that "the State shall respect the right of parents to ensure such education and teachng in conformity with their own religious and philosophical convictions" (Article 2 of Protocol 1 to the ECHR).

Since there are not enough schools for three different systems, there are around 50 'two schools under one roof', where two different curricula are taught and children are segregated. Sometimes the children use segregated entrances, follow separate time schedules and with little or no interaction.

A study conducted by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), states that, "The current fractured system...is having the effect of creating three separate sets of citizens, each ignorant and distrustful of the "other".

Perhaps the biggest surprise is that such a system has been supported by the UN since 1992. In 2004 alone, $24million had been spent on 500 development projects in the country*.

Why is the UN investing millions of dollars to create the next generation of ethnic-cleansers' in the Balkans?

What are the lessons here for education reform in India?

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Saturday, November 07, 2009

Rise & Fall of Technology Champions

Once upon a time, Japan dominated the microprocessor's market. And then, between 2002 and 2007, as Taiwanese and South Korean appeared in the market, Japan's marketshare crashed from 75% to 34%.

So, instead of fading into the sunset, the Japanese moved to higher-value products, focusing on substrates for microprocessor units (MPUs). The 3% of substrates for MPU applications shipped in 2007 accounted for 30% of the market’s value. And this is just one example of how a slew of medium sized companies have quickly changed tack and adapted to the winds of change.

According to the Minstry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), the chuken kigyo (strong, medium-sized firms) serve more than 70% of the worldwide market in at least 30 technology sectors worth more than $1 billion apiece. Their niche areas are mostly at the high-end of electronics, engineering and materials-science.

The common characteristics of Japan's technology champions were:
  • They invest handsomely in research and development (R&D).
  • Many have factories abroad for basic products but keep the high-end stuff at home—in a “black box”.
  • They often own their supply chains: chip companies that might use crystal components generally grow their own.
  • Some firms even make the very machines they use, in order to control costs, remain independent of suppliers and maintain a deep understanding of their technology.
  • Work closely with clients and solve common, thorny problems together.
  • Firms try to maintain lifetime-employment because knowledge of technology is tacit, not formal.

Just when everybody thought that it was dificult to replicate the strengths of the Japanese companies, a small Dutch company called ASML came up with a little shocker. Until 1990, Nikon and Canon dominated the the market for 'steppers' - the tools used to make computer chips. They had 65% and ASML, less than 10%. Today it is the other way around...Also along the way Japan's marketshare for solar panels dropped from 50% to 20% during the past four years.

What went wrong? Now the experts say that some the strengths were also fatal weaknesses:

  • Too many competitors, so margins are thin and there is not enough being spent for R&D. So Taiwanese,Chinese and Korean companies are catching up.
  • Tax laws actually discourage partnerships from forming.
  • The lack of shareholder pressure that lets companies focus on long-term projects removes the market discipline to boost performance and cull weak projects.
  • Vertical integration ensures supply and quality, but leads companies into non-core areas better done by others.
  • Lifetime employment keeps knowledge in-house, but firms lose flexibility, employees lose labour mobility and fresh ideas can be stifled.
  • The best technology is less prized in the fastest-growing markets—poor countries like China and India that want basic products. (Japanese makers of mobile phones have the world’s most sophisticated devices but their market share abroad is virtually nil)

Now it'll be interesting to find out how much these medium-sized companies contribute to Japan's GDP...

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Japanese Companies that Dominate Hitech Niche Areas -

  • Japan Steel Works, Hokkaido: Produces huge, solid-steel vessel to contain the radioactivity in nuclear reactors. JSW produces this from a single 600T steel ingot and sells it for $150million apiece. There are 40 nuclear plants unders construction around the world, designed bya dozen companies from USA, China, France, japan and Russia. All depend on this one company.
  • Shimano: Earns around $1.5 billion a year by supplying 60-70% of the world’s bicycle gears and brakes.
  • YKK: Zip fastners - 50% of world market
    MURATA: 40% of world capacitor market.They cost somewhere between a quarter of a cent and 20 cents each, but a mobile phone may need 100 of them and a PC 1,000.
  • Nitto Denko claims to have more than 20 market-leading products, mostly for making LCD displays.
  • Mitsubishi Chemicals (the odd one here - not an SME!) commands a near monopoly in red phosphorescent materials used to make natural-white LED light bulbs.
  • Shin-Etsu enjoys the top spot for certain silicon wafers for semiconductors. Also 50% of the market for the photomask substrate, used to place patterns on semiconductors. The remaining 50% is dominated by — Covalent, NSG, AGC and Tosoh—all from Japan.
  • Kyocera leads in several integrated-circuit components.
  • NIDEC: 75% of motors for hard-disk drives in computers
  • MABUCHI: 90% of micro-motors used to adjust the rear-view mirrors in cars.
  • TEL: 80% of the etchers used in making an LCD panel.
  • COVALENT: 60% of containers that hold silicon wafers as they are turned into computer-chips. 70% of the market for carbon brushes in electric motors

Japanese companies have a similar grip on, for example, bonding material for integrated circuit packages and the lithography machines (called steppers) to make LCD panels. The semiconductor business if practically owned by Japanese companies. The process of making computer chips illustrates Japan’s dominance. Among the many steps are four in which the Japanese are indispensable:

  1. Wafer processing: SHIN-ETSU (35% of world market)
  2. Thin-film formation: NIPPON MINING & METALS manufacturs (30%) 'sputtering target material' used in Thermal Imaging Equipment;
  3. Coating, lithography and developing: TOPPAN PRINTING (40%) of 'mask/rectile' and JSR (40%) of 'photoresist' used for making electron beam lithography system and coating machine/ developer respectively.
  4. Contact and packaging: SUMITOMO BAKELITE (35%) of 'encapsulates' used for making dicing machines.

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References:
Japan's technology champions - Invisible but indispensable - The Economist, Nov. 5th 2009

Friday, November 06, 2009

Honor Vs. Gunpowder

A decisive battle took place on 23 August 1514, at Chaldiran (Eastern Anatolia) between the Turks and the Persians. The Turks were led by Selim-the-Grim and the Saffavid Persians, by Shah Ismail.

Perhaps the most significant aspect of this battle was that, at that time gunpowder technology was available to both the warring parties, but the Persians refused to use firearms because they considered this kind of warfare cowardly and honorless.

The Persians were, of course, routed - the swords were no match for the guns. Shah Ismail may have won the moral ground but he lost his kingdom and died a heartbroken alcoholic after his wives were given as war-booty to the Ottoman commander's.

In the long-term, the battle ruined the Shia notions of an infallible Murshid (the king as a religious head) and the Caliphate shifted to Istanbul; the Sunni's then dominated Middle-East for the next hundred years. The present-day border between Turkey and Iran was defined by this battle, as well as the reason why the capital of Persia shifted from Tabriz to Tehran.

One of the tribes that switched loyalties was the Kurds and their identity crisis continues to haunt Iraq, Iran and Turkey even today.

Seen in this perspective, it is hardly surprising that the Iranians today prefer to have the perceived safety of nuclear weapons rather than the dubious high moral ground offered by the West...

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Links:
Battle of Chaldiran - Wiki

Sultan Selim the Excellent / Selim I / 'Selim the Grim' - Wiki

Islamic World to 1600 - UCalgary

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Autumn in Kanto

Mt. Fuji from Tsukuba

Tokyo Imperial Palace Moat (National Diet in the background)

Chrysanthemum Flowers at Yasukuni Shrine, Tokyo

Sunday, November 01, 2009

Contradictions of the Mallu Male

This was brilliant! :)

Nisha Susan's article in Tehelka (7 Nov.2009) -

The Malayali - The Double Life Of Bobby, Baby, Blossom, Biju And Shaji

Lost causes, alcoholism, eve-teasing, world politics, parochialism...the endless contradictions in the Malayali male.


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Reference Link:

http://www.tehelka.com/story_main43.asp?filename=hub071109the_double.asp