Digital Media and its Echo Chambers

The Japanese have a phrase to describe Indians - お喋りインド人 "Oshaberi Indo-jin", which translates politely into 'Chattering Indians'. A term reserved for insensitive folks who talk for the sake of talking, without consideration to others.

Nowhere is this more painful than at public lectures, seminars, workshops and conferences. At international events, it is often a nightmare for the organisers that unfolds at three levels: First, the embarassment about key speakers not arriving on time, leading to announcements that the event is delayed because so-and-so got held-up at an "important meeting"; Once the meeting starts, it is about speakers who ignore the clock and carry on blaberring, ignoring frantic signals to cease, and finally, the pain of enduring a Q&A session. Here again the organisers plead for short, pointed questions from the audience, and what they get instead is long speeches from folks who refuse to let go of the mikes.

Last Friday, I participated for the first time, in a seminar where the organisers tried a novel way of dealing with the Q&A problem. This was an event organised jointly by IIC, CPR and the Niti Aayog called Metamorphoses - part of series that calls itself "a modest effort to try and bridge the gap between digital technologies, which are transforming our lives, and our understanding of their multiple dimensions".

Despite the absence of one of the main speakers, the event started more or less on time. As expected, the event had its panel of heavyweights on stage: the Principal Scientific Advisor to the Prime Minister, along with representatives from Twitter, the Silicon Valley, and think tanks. The format for Q&A came with a digital twist. 

A slip of paper placed on each chair in the hall had a certain number to which you had to send an SMS, if you had a question for any of the panelists. A representative from IIC/CPR would then choose from the messages received, and convey selected questions, to the panelists on stage.

Much like the Twitter algorithm discussed in the seminar, this Q&A format created an echo chamber in which the panel received only sanitised, insipid questions that gave an illusion of public engagement. The organisers may have suceeded in sticking to timelines while nipping out presky mike-grabbers and their long-winded questions, and but it also robbed the event of its human touch. A podcast may have served their purpose just as well.

SMSs at the Q&A Session@IIC, New Delhi

After this event, I now have a greater appreciation for the "Explained" events organised by the Indian Express. It starts with a public advertisement in a newspaper (not a mere mailing list), attracts SMS confirmations from a fairly broad spectrum of the public (not just retired bureaucrats), and their Q&A sessions are orderly without being overbearing. 

It also helps to have an alert moderator on stage, who also directs a team that passes wireless mikes to the audience. Since the norms are enforced with an even hand, the post-event discussions turn out to be lively and spirited, giving you a much deeper understanding of the issues discussed. 

When it comes to organising real public engagements, perhaps it is time IIC, CPR and Niti Aayog learned a thing or two from folks at the Indian Express. We could all then step out of our echo chamber's and have a discussion that is really worthwhile.

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LINKS:

* Centre for Policy Research and its Metamorphoses - https://metamorphoses.in/
* Explained by the Indian Express - https://indianexpress.com/section/explained/

Delhi Metro: DAR vs. LUD

How does one calculate a ride on the Delhi Metro?

A recent article in the Indian Express was hinged on this question, and it came up with a politically charged conclusion from a minister in the Delhi Government who said it was "Extremely worrying" to see a 17% drop ridership in the months of March, April and May, as compared to 2017.

So, what exactly is ridership? 

Ridership here refers to "Daily Average Ridership (DAR)", a metric used by Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) across its six corridors — Yellow, Blue, Red, Green, Violet, and Magenta. 

An RTI filed by the newspaper came up with the following data on DAR for three months in 2017 and 2018 for five corridors (Yellow, Blue, Red, Green, and Violet):

• March 2017 - 2.76 million; March 2018 - 2.2 million 
• April 2017 - 2.75 million; April 2018 - 2.26 million
• May 2017 - 2.65 million; May 2018 - 2.25 million

This alleged drop in ridership is important because DMRC had brought in a sharp increase in fares in October 2017, a politically charged decision that was strongly opposed by AAP, the ruling party in Delhi Government, which is also a stakeholder in Delhi Metro. DMRC has been clamoring for a fare review for more than a decade in order to cut dependence on government subsidies, and to be at least operationally viable.

On 29 May, 2018, a day after opening the entire Magenta Line (Botanical Garden to Janakpuri West), DMRC stopped using the DAR metric and started a new one called "Line Utilization Data (LUD)". 

Unlike DAR which was calculated based on the entry and exit made by a passenger at the automatic fare collection (AFC) gates, LUD logs only overall utilization data. Double-counting is avoided and a passenger moving from one corridor to another is counted as a single trip only. For instance, a trip from Noida to Gurgaon across the blue-line and yellow-line would count as one trip, not two.

It is unclear when exactly the LUD metric started getting used. If it started after the fare hike, this could easily explain the alleged drop in ridership in March-April-May 2018. 

Strangely, while the Financial Express says one thing, its sister concern, the IndianExpress reports the opposite. On 30 May 2018, FE reported "Delhi Metro had posted a steady rise in the average ridership, with nearly 27 lakh (2.7m) commuters taking the rapid transit network daily in February this year". Three weeks later, IE tells us that for the very same month - Feb., 2018 - ridership was 22.18 lakhs (2.2m)!

As expected, AAP, the ruling party in Delhi, is highlighting the latter to prove that the fare hike is driving people away from the metro. 

Regular metro users like me find it extremely difficult to believe this. Far from seeing a drop in commuters I see crowded trains even during off-peak hours. In fact, within a month of opening the Magenta line, it has become impossible to find car parking at the nearest OBS Metro station!

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LINKS & REFERENCES

* (30May18), FE - https://www.financialexpress.com/infrastructure/railways/dmrc-uses-new-count-metric-on-traffic-flow-doesnt-share-ridership/1187488/

* (21Jun18) IE - Metro ridership plummets 5 lakh - https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/delhi-metros-daily-ridership-plummets-five-lakh-as-compared-to-last-year-5226272/

Young India - Unsatisfied, Unscrupulous, Unstoppable

"Where you stand depends on where you sit" - Mile's Law

Over the past two weeks I have come across two views on where India is headed, both seem to contradict each other but at the same time, pointing to a common direction while reiterating Mile's Law.

The first was an Explained session organised by the Indian Express at New Delhi where Manish Sabharwal, the chairman of TeamLease spoke of great business opportunities in the India, while the second one was book by Snigdha Poonam titled, "Dreamers".

Sabharwal was amazingly optimistic and eloquent on the direction in which India was headed. Where most liberals saw clouds of doom and gloom, he saw opportunties etched in the sliver linings. Sample these facts and figures -

- Good Times Ahead: 50% of India's labor force is engaged in agriculture which contributes just 13% of GDP, while 0.7% of the workforce is into ITES which contributes 9% of GDP! With more than 600 international companies setting up captive IT centres in India, the workforce of 3.5 million in ITES is set to double over the next 10 years.
- "Cascading Regime Change": We are already seeing the synergystic impact of recent reforms (GST + RERA + DeMo). Before GST there were only 7 million enterprises registered for indirect tax. Now there are 10.5 million -- a 50% increase in just eight months!

Sabharwal's optimism as the leader of one of the largest employers in India contrasted with that of the journalist Snigdha Poonam who saw the great mismatch between aspirations of millions of young Indians, and harsh ground realities.

If you saw a pop-up on your screen warning you of an IRS investigation in USA or a virus in your laptop/PC/mobile, chances are that you are about to be scammed by an Indian. It seems there are hundreds of call centers in the obscure byelanes of urban India, using desperate job-seekers to con the most vulnerable people across the world --  elderly pensioners, single mothers struggling to make ends meet and all those who are already intimidated by technology.

According to Poonam: "Like it or not, young India is what it is - unsatisfied, unscrupulous, unstoppable. Few young Indians had a clear sense of right and wrong: fewer gave a damn about it. 

The idea of personal benefit over public good isn't owned by them, however. It is at the core of India's value system. Sure, some young Indians will cheat their way to their dreams, but they don't see how they are different from anyone in the news - politicians, businessmen, celebreties..."

Sabharwal's TeamLease claims to have hired someone for every 5 minutes in the last few years and provided employment to more than 1.2 million since 2002. And yet, he also admits that his hiring funnel is very narrow - out of every hundred applicants, less than 5 are hired, trained and placed in various companies.

So there you are - the desperation and angst Poonam sees in the 95 who got rejected is quite different from the optimism of those who did. The way you look at the future depends completely on where you stand.

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LINKS & REFERENCES:

* Explained by Indian Express - http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/manish-sabharwal-problem-is-wages-not-jobs-minimum-salary-unemployment-indian-gdp-5106348/

* Reviews: http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/books/hope-against-hope

https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/thane-call-centre-scam-mastermind-who-gifted-girlfriend-rs-2-5-cr-audi-arrested-in-mumbai/story-kiKLnuAVy6gNVlkPhHYEAM.html

GST Explained by the Revenue Secretary

In less than a months' time, the tax system in India will take a radical shift to a comprehensive Goods and Services Tax (GST) model. In most countries, GST is understood as a single indirect, comprehensive, broad-based consumption tax. In Singapore the GST rate is a flat 7% while in Australia, it is 10%. Other countries have a graded VAT system with different tax slabs.

The Indian model GST is going to be unique - and seems rather confusing. From 1 July 2017, we are going to have a GST with five different slabs, ranging from 0% to 28%. The norms for reporting and compliance too seems quite formidable. This impression is getting reinforced by 'expert analysis' on YouTube and the social media.

This was the background and context to a recent meeting organised by the Indian Express, to bring Dr. H. Ardhia, the Revenue Secretary himself, to interact with the pubic. It was a decidedly anxious audience  of about 400 people who assembled at IIC on 6 June, 2017.

It was a packed hall, ringed with people who could not find vacant seats. The two empty chairs on the stage were taken up Vishwanathan from IE, and Dr. Ardhia, who was described as a PhD in Yoga!

First came the big picture: The long legacy of Indirect Taxes (Customs, Excise Duty, Service Tax, VAT, Stamp Duty, Entertainment Tax, etc.,), how the division of responsibilities between the central and state governments had resulted in various inefficiencies, and how steps were taken to gradually move from VAT to a nation-wide, common GST system.

The total tax collection for FY 2015-16 was INR 14600 billion (Rs 14.60 lakh crore), of which indirect tax revenues was Rs 7.11 lakh crore and direct tax collection came in at Rs 7.48 lakh crore. In India, the ratio of direct vs. indirect taxes was 35:65 - just the opposite of what it ought to be, and the sheer absurdity of the fact that in a country of 1.2 billion people there are only 2.4 million people who earned an annual income of over INR 1 million!

A substantial part of the session was set aside for answering questions from the audience. Surprisingly there were hardly any long-winded queries - most of them were short and sharp, with matching responses from Dr. Ardhia, with a dose of good humor. At the same time, it was a bit disconcerting to note from the responses, that the Revenue-Secretary too was not entirely clear on how the government would cope with various interpretations of the GST Act 2017.

Starting from 1 June 2017, we are sure too see many months - and perhaps years - of GST-related turbulence and turmoil.

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LINKS

* Taxes to be subsumed in GST - http://www.gstindia.com/gst-knowledge-series-5-taxes-to-be-subsumed-in-gst/

* (2017) - Dept of Revenue - collection during current year - http://www.dor.gov.in/revenue_ctc
- 2011-12 Corporate tax 3.2 LCr -- Income Tax 1.7 LCr = Total 4.9 Lcr
- Customs 1.44 LCr -- Central Excise 1.4 LCr -- Service Tax 0.97 LCr = Total 3.9 LCr

* E&Y on GST Compliance - http://www.ey.com/in/en/services/ey-goods-and-services-tax-gst

* Global VAT / GST Rates - http://www.vatlive.com/vat-rates/international-vat-and-gst-rates/

* (2016) - Tax collection in 2015-16 exceeds target by Rs 5,000 crore - http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Tax-collection-in-2015-16-exceeds-target-by-Rs-5000-crore/articleshow/51718111.cms

* State Tax Revenues - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_of_India_by_tax_revenues
- Total for all states, 30,331 billion (30L cr)
- Top five - WBengal (4518b), AP+Telengana, UP, TN, Karnataka
- Kerala is at no.9 at INR 1382b

* (2017) Budget Explained -- http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/budget-union-2017-tax-fiscal-deficit-expenditure-revenue-breaking-down-the-budget-4503206/

* Revenue Secretary - http://www.dor.gov.in/revenue_secretary
- Dr. Hasmukh Adhia

Shekhar's Express

Until recently the Indian Express was my favourite newspaper. Unlike the leading "best-selling" newspapers like HT or ToI, it actually gave priority to news over advertisements; it published good investigative reports; it had credible editor in Shekhar Gupta and it had a line-up of the most interesting columnists.

These days IE seems a sad caricature of what it used to be. The only thing IE still has going for it are a handful of its columnists and reporters.   It still puts out 'news' but much of it seems to be peddling the agenda of the powers-that-be. Its investigative reports seem shallow, lacking in any credibility and the editor's weekly column 'National Interest' seems quite the opposite.

Take for instance its strident stance on the Gen. V.K. Singh controversy, topped by that full-front-pager on an alleged coup attempt. It soon emerged that the Express was making a mountain out of a mole-hill. The paper was mocked and chided, even by fellow editors like Vinod Mehta. Instead of coming clean on coup story with some clarifications it is taking Mehta to court!  Strangely, this bit of news is published in all papers - except the Express.

On 28 April, SG's article "With Prejudice" contained a string of factual errors - especially on the role of Sikh Generals during Operation Bluestar. These errors were were pointed out in a rebuttal by M. G. Devasagayam (13 May 2012) who also went on to politely rubbish SG's notion of 'National Interest' . As in the coup-story, the newspaper made no further mention about it, confirming the suspicious that the editor was again taking through his hat, and hoping that the readers suffer from chronic amnesia.

In his latest piece, "The 24th Chief", SG tries to counter a charge made by Gen. Singh that "for journalists, nothing is off-the-record". He says first that journos too have their ethics, that they would never betray anybody's trust. Then, hiding behind a quote from another hack, he adds a veiled threat - that "if a story is good, it will come out", confirming just the point Gen. Singh had made in his interviews.

So much for the 'Journalism of Courage'.

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LINKS / REFERENCES:

Gupta, Shekhar (2012): With Prejudice, Indian Express, 28 April 2012, URL - http://www.indianexpress.com/news/national-interest-with-prejudice/942607/

Devasagayam, M.G (2012): With No Prejudice, Indian Express, 19 May 2012, URL - http://www.indianexpress.com/news/with-no-prejudice/951159

Rangaswami, Anant (2012): Express Asks for the Mother of All Embarassments, First Post, 16 May 2012 - URL - http://www.firstpost.com/india/indian-express-asks-for-the-mother-of-all-embarrassments-311393.html

Gupta, Shekhar (2012): The 24th Chief, IE 2 Jun 2012, URL - http://www.indianexpress.com/news/the-24th-chief/956732/0