Covid-19: Winds of Change

 How things change in one year!

At the beginning of 2021 everybody seemed perplexed that the much anticipated first wave of Covid-19 had somehow swept past India without causing much damage. 'The virus cannot survive the pollution levels here!', sniggered the wags and carried on with their lives. 

People were just beginning to take it easy when the second wave - the Delta variant - blindsided us in March 2021. Suddenly all the hospitals were struggling to cope with a deluge of patients and distraught families. Just about everybody seemed to be desperately looking for oxygen cylinders, medicines, oxygen concentrators and reliable test kits. By July, nearly half a million people had died on the official records with speculation rife on the scale of unreported deaths.

When Delta gave way to Omicron there was much talk on how the healthcare system had been geared up to meet the challenge. Skeptical as always, I thought this was bluster - just the sort of pep-talk expected from politicians to keep a lid on panic levels. It took a first-hand experience for me to realise how wrong I was!

We started 2022 on a positive note from our RTPCR test labs. It had started with a throat irritation and telltale signs of a fever. When a number of friends who attended a Christmas party started testing Covid-positive, we knew that ours was not the winter usual viral. The tests only confirmed this but what surprised me is the way in which the healthcare system had actually been geared up to cope with this new wave.

Within an hour of calling a private testing lab (SRL), a sample collector was at our doorstep (~INR 900 / ~USD 12 per test). The RTPCR reports arrived online a day later, on a Saturday. It is mandatory for the private labs to send a copy of the reports to the state health department also gone to the UP government health department, and we were pleasantly surprised to see how the SoPs clicked into place. 

On Monday morning a young government doctor visited us to collect first-hand data, to check if home-isolation was being strictly followed, and to hand over free kits of medicines. A team was sent across to spray and disinfect the apartment tower and, for the next week, we got at least one call a day from the 'Central Covid Control Room' to check if the infection had aggravated in any way. Thankfully, it did not. The infection was as mild as it could be - fever for a day, a sore-throat for two.

As per the new guidelines, at the end of a seven-day isolation period, it is no longer mandatory to take another RTPCR test but we  got tests done anyway using the new Rapid Antigen Tests that were now easily available on Amazon. Interestingly, these tests were no longer being imported from Germany, South Korea or China but made locally by a company called MyLab and sold for just INR 250 (~ USD 3.5) each. Clearly a lot of thought has gone into the design and production of these kits, each of which contains a sterile swab, a pre-filled extraction tube, test-card, instruction manual (English/Hindi) and a disposal pouch. 

One of these days I hope to understand more about the kind of technology and production systems that it takes to prototype and scale up production of these kits ("with immunochromatographic nitrocellulose assay...which uses highly sensitive antibodies to detect Covid-19 nucleocapsid proteins.."), to the current levels of 10 million sets per week!

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REFERENCES & LINKS

* https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/coronavirus-how-india-is-doing-now-after-delta-variant-spread.html

* MyLab - wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mylab_Discovery_Solutions#cite_note-1

* Pune start-up makes affordable, accessible Covid-19 test kit (March 2020) - https://www.financialexpress.com/lifestyle/health/pune-start-up-makes-affordable-accessible-covid-19-test-kit/1908524/

* Producing 10 million kits per week - https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/indias-mylab-can-ramp-up-covid-19-test-production-100-mln-units-per-week-ceo-2021-05-21/

ERR_INTERNET_DISCONNECTED

Sitting in our metro cities it is difficult to imagine a world of alternate realities. The internet and our access to it, is perhaps one such world. One where screens suddenly blank out and you end up with a digi-dinosaur hopping over cactus.

At a panel discussion organised by the Indian Express yesterday, a group of experts sat on the stage to discuss what seemed like a rather vague and tenuous topic - "Is Internet Shutdown a New Order for Law and Order"? The fact that this event - IE Thinc - was sponsored by Facebook made me all the more skeptical about its relevance. 

The panel had an interesting mix:  a young bureaucrat responsible for an internet shutdown at Ranchi; a representative from the Intenet Freedom Foundation, one from the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), and an economist. Except for the last one, who seemed long winded and disconnected like most economists, the other three made sense. 

I was surprised to know that the Government of India is very secretive about sharing data on internet shutdowns. Data accessed from other sources (mainly UN) indicate that there have been at least 254 shutdowns in 19 states during the period 2012-2018. 

While the initial intent of many had been to prevent riots and loss of lives from the the rumours spread on Facebook, Whatsapp etc., internet shutdowns were now being implemented for reasons that could only be described as flippant and irresponsible. In the most recent case, in Udaipur, Rajasthan, the internet was shut down for a few days to prevent cheating in a government recruitment exam!

Considering how internet shutdowns affected the lives of millions of citizens - loss of business, access to basic services, education, payments and so on - what was the legal basis for such disruptions? Here are some of the laws/rules enumerated:

• Article 19(2) - places "Reasonable restrictions" on freedom
• Section 144 CPC - "Unlawful Assembly" -- used against freedom fighters during freedom struggle to confiscate Gandhi Caps, now used to shut down the net.
• Rules for Temporary Suspension of Telecom Services, 2017 -- just requires an SP+ officer to issue order
• Section 95 CPC - banning of books
• Section 6.2 of Telegraph Act - used for phone/network tapping

I am glad I decided to attend this event. If not anything else, it was a sobering reminder that it takes very little to turn the smartphone in our hands into a useless lump of plastic and metal.

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LINKS:

- Rules for suspension of telecom services, 2017 - http://www.dot.gov.in/circulars/temporary-suspension-telecom-services-public-emergency-or-public-safety-rules-2017
- Internet Freedom Foundation - https://internetfreedom.in/
- Report on IE event -7 Sept., 2018 - https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/iethinc-debates-implications-of-internet-shutdowns/1305181/

The Power of One

This is one obituary that refuses to leave my mindspace.

It is not often that we see touching, personal tributes to politician who passed away but E. Chandrasekharan Nair seems to have been a very unusual politician indeed. He is being refered to as the driving force behind Kerala's public distribution system which is not just functional (an usual thing in India), but also super efficient in delivering essential provisions (grains, fuel) to those who need it the most.

My own mother is a big fan of ECN. For a citizen who is not below the poverty line (BPL), even she can get 2kg of raw rice, 2kg of chemba (red) rice, 2kg of wheat atta and 0.5L of kerosene - all for just INR 100. "Where else in the world can you walk into a PDS shop and get so much for INR 100?" she asks, "Folks with BPL cards can get foodgrains at INR 1/kg!...even migrant labourers from other states are eligible for this facility!"

In most other states, foodgrains meant for the PDS is regularly siphoned off to private millers who, in turn, package it and sell it as branded stuff. How did one politician manage to fight off the usual lobbies and pressure-groups to put in place a welfare system that actually works?

The key to building an efficient PDS apparantly lies in the government agency that runs it. In this case, ECN was responsible for implementing key reforms as the minister in charge of  Kerala's Department of Food and Civil Supplies, for three long stints (1980-81, 1987-91 and 1996-2001).

Under this department, a public company, Kerala State Civil Supplies Corp Ltd (SupplyCo) runs a vast machinery for efficiently procuring foodgrains directly from the farmers at minimum support prices, of getting the grain processed in contracted mills, and, finally, getting them distributed through 14 district depots, 56 taluk depots and around 1500 retail outlets (Maveli Stores). The sales turnover of this company was nearly INR 4000 crores in 2015-16!


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REFERENCES / LINKS

- Obituary (NewsMinute) - http://www.thenewsminute.com/article/ex-kerala-minister-e-chandrasekharan-nair-architect-maveli-stores-passes-away-72372
- Obituary (The Hindu) - http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/e-chandrasekharan-nair-passes-away/article21095877.ece
(2000) - Interview - http://www.frontline.in/static/html/fl1719/17190980.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._Chandrasekharan_Nair
Maveli Stores - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maveli_Stores
SupplyCo, Kerala - http://supplycokerala.com/

GST Explained by the Revenue Secretary

In less than a months' time, the tax system in India will take a radical shift to a comprehensive Goods and Services Tax (GST) model. In most countries, GST is understood as a single indirect, comprehensive, broad-based consumption tax. In Singapore the GST rate is a flat 7% while in Australia, it is 10%. Other countries have a graded VAT system with different tax slabs.

The Indian model GST is going to be unique - and seems rather confusing. From 1 July 2017, we are going to have a GST with five different slabs, ranging from 0% to 28%. The norms for reporting and compliance too seems quite formidable. This impression is getting reinforced by 'expert analysis' on YouTube and the social media.

This was the background and context to a recent meeting organised by the Indian Express, to bring Dr. H. Ardhia, the Revenue Secretary himself, to interact with the pubic. It was a decidedly anxious audience  of about 400 people who assembled at IIC on 6 June, 2017.

It was a packed hall, ringed with people who could not find vacant seats. The two empty chairs on the stage were taken up Vishwanathan from IE, and Dr. Ardhia, who was described as a PhD in Yoga!

First came the big picture: The long legacy of Indirect Taxes (Customs, Excise Duty, Service Tax, VAT, Stamp Duty, Entertainment Tax, etc.,), how the division of responsibilities between the central and state governments had resulted in various inefficiencies, and how steps were taken to gradually move from VAT to a nation-wide, common GST system.

The total tax collection for FY 2015-16 was INR 14600 billion (Rs 14.60 lakh crore), of which indirect tax revenues was Rs 7.11 lakh crore and direct tax collection came in at Rs 7.48 lakh crore. In India, the ratio of direct vs. indirect taxes was 35:65 - just the opposite of what it ought to be, and the sheer absurdity of the fact that in a country of 1.2 billion people there are only 2.4 million people who earned an annual income of over INR 1 million!

A substantial part of the session was set aside for answering questions from the audience. Surprisingly there were hardly any long-winded queries - most of them were short and sharp, with matching responses from Dr. Ardhia, with a dose of good humor. At the same time, it was a bit disconcerting to note from the responses, that the Revenue-Secretary too was not entirely clear on how the government would cope with various interpretations of the GST Act 2017.

Starting from 1 June 2017, we are sure too see many months - and perhaps years - of GST-related turbulence and turmoil.

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LINKS

* Taxes to be subsumed in GST - http://www.gstindia.com/gst-knowledge-series-5-taxes-to-be-subsumed-in-gst/

* (2017) - Dept of Revenue - collection during current year - http://www.dor.gov.in/revenue_ctc
- 2011-12 Corporate tax 3.2 LCr -- Income Tax 1.7 LCr = Total 4.9 Lcr
- Customs 1.44 LCr -- Central Excise 1.4 LCr -- Service Tax 0.97 LCr = Total 3.9 LCr

* E&Y on GST Compliance - http://www.ey.com/in/en/services/ey-goods-and-services-tax-gst

* Global VAT / GST Rates - http://www.vatlive.com/vat-rates/international-vat-and-gst-rates/

* (2016) - Tax collection in 2015-16 exceeds target by Rs 5,000 crore - http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Tax-collection-in-2015-16-exceeds-target-by-Rs-5000-crore/articleshow/51718111.cms

* State Tax Revenues - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_of_India_by_tax_revenues
- Total for all states, 30,331 billion (30L cr)
- Top five - WBengal (4518b), AP+Telengana, UP, TN, Karnataka
- Kerala is at no.9 at INR 1382b

* (2017) Budget Explained -- http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/budget-union-2017-tax-fiscal-deficit-expenditure-revenue-breaking-down-the-budget-4503206/

* Revenue Secretary - http://www.dor.gov.in/revenue_secretary
- Dr. Hasmukh Adhia