India & Japan: Looking into Hazy Skies

Tomorrow, for the first time, a Japanese premier would be the chief guest at India's Republic Day parade.

Behind all the symbolism is the bland fact that both sides are living in hope. India hopes that Japan would find some spine and emerge from the shadows of being a US client-state, and Japan hopes that Indians will stop jabbering about "civilizational linkages" and get real about building linkages in trade, commerce and defense.

In today's Indian Express, PD Samanta has come up with some interesting examples. First, the much touted long-term 2012 agreement to supply 4000 tonnes of rare-earths per year to supply rare earths to Japan seems to have fizzled out.  Thanks to a temporary dip in international prices, Japanese firms are trying to drive a hard bargain on long term contracts, and this has turned off DAE.

US1a (pic from MOD, Japan site)

The second  is Japan's offer to sell US2 amphibious aircraft to India. A Joint Working Group is "exploring modalities for the cooperation". In other words this is still in the realm of academic debates, and with the latest crop of corruption scandals in defense purchases, we can rest assured that it will be years before the bureaucrats on both sides decide on anything.

Tomorrow morning, while Mr. Abe peers through a smoggy morning at Russian, US and French-made military aircraft flying across the skies, he might be wondering if Japan too can get a slice of the market. Or maybe he will continue giving us lectures on nuclear abstinence and business etiquette until the next elections.

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LINKS & REFERENCES

PD Samanta (Indian Express, 25Jan14)-- ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/arrested-development/

US2 - STOL Aircraft - http://www.shinmaywa.co.jp/english/news/pdf/09-02-19.pdf
- http://www.shinmaywa.co.jp/english/products/us2_capability.html

JWG for US2(ET, May'13) -- http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-05-29/news/39602101_1_india-and-japan-japanese-counterpart-shinzo-abe-aircraft

http://thediplomat.com/2013/10/the-benefits-for-india-of-a-us-2-deal-with-japan/

Yet Another Summit Meeting

The Japanese Prime Minister, Noda, visited India this week. As usual, there was much talk about boosting trade, technology transfer and maintaining high levels of ODA assistance for infrastructure projects. Despite all the special reports, exclusive interviews and sound-bites, there seems to be little evidence of any real change in the bilateral equation.

When the dust settles down one hard fact will still remain: Japan-India trade stands at $15 billion while Sino-Japan trade is chugging on at $340 billion per year.

Why is there such a huge gap between the rhetoric and reality? A part of the answer perhaps lies in the completely unrealistic expectations with which Indian's approach the Japanese. Take for instance, India's desire to obtain advanced technologies from Japan. On 28 Dec., an Indian Express report on bullet trains headline said, 'Japan Says Will Provide Latest Technology'. The crux of the report was a quote by one Toshihiro Yamakoshi, Director, Office of Project Development, Japan's transport ministry, who is aparantly stated, 'Japan would be offering the necessary technology' for the six corridors that India is planning to develop.

A transport ministry offers technology that does not belong to it and the report claims that Japan 'will provide latest technology'. This might have made some sense if the reporter was quoting a Soviet official in the erstwhile USSR. But Japan is not USSR and neither companies not technologies belong to the government to do as they please.

The Chinese officials understood this simple fact a couple of decades ago and focussed their attention, not on the MITI officials, but on Japanese companies that needed cheap labor and access to markets. They delivered what was promised in meetings, played transnationals against each other and, over the years,  built-up their own companies as formidable competitors.

At the end of this prime-ministerial visit, Indian politicians and bureaucrats will no doubt pat each other on the backs and hope that the private sector will  take a cue from the high-level discussions and "do the needful" - until the next summit meeting.

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REFERENCES / LINKS

• Dashtidar, Avishek G and Shubhajit Roy (2011): JAPAN SAYS WILL PROVIDE LATEST TECH, Indian Express, 28 Dec 11, p7
• Garia, Nikita (2011): What They Said: Japanese Prime Minister's Visit, 31 Dec. 2011, URL -  http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2011/12/31/what-they-said-japanese-prime-ministers-india-visit/
• Edit IE (2011): LIFTING THE GAME, IE 28 Dec 11, p10
• ENS Bureau (2011): JAPAN MAY INVEST $4.5bn IN DELHI-MUMBAI CORRIDOR, IE 28 Dec 11 p16

* Joint Forum of Indian and Japanese CEOs - Joint Report (28 December 2011) - http://www.keidanren.or.jp/english/policy/2011/116.html