The Mess in Kashmir

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Over the past few months, as the civic unrest in Kashmir went from bad to worse, it had become increasingly difficult to find Indian opinion-leaders with a sense of proportion.

Is it morally justified for security forces to gun down stone-throwers?

All the news channels seemed uniformly nonchalant, flippant and even irresponsible, in their commentary. Only the Hindu  (especially Siddharth Varadarajan) seem to have taken a meaningful position. And now there are two more Voices of Reason - Madhu Kishwar and  Prem Shankar Jha in Tehelka-

Forex Games

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Our decision to invest in a Kindle-3 has been hastened by unexpected macro-economic forces.

Over the last few days, the Japanese government has pumped over $20 billion into the money-markets in a unilateral attempt at lowering the price of the Yen. By spending about Yen 4 trillion a day, it has managed to pull the Yen-$ rates from 83 to 85.

Why is the yen getting stronger against the dollar? Why did Japan have to act unilaterally?

James Saft of Reuters has some interesting answers. In a rather nicely written piece (NYT 17 Sep., `Japan Plays a Game that Others Win`), he explains how China precipitated the ongoing crisis by checkmating the Japanese.

Over the past few months China has been increasing its purchase of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) so as to diversify its forex portfolio which is, at present, heavily invested in US Dollar Treasury Bonds. During the same period China has been under pressure from the US to buy more dollars to ease a long-standing criticism about exchange rates that peg the Chinese Renminbi at an artificially low rate to the US dollar.

Now, by buying into JGBs it has triggered a chain-reaction resulting in a sudden spike in Yen-USD rates, due to which Japanese exports are becoming increasingly uncompetitive. To bring down the exchange rates, the Japanese government is buying loads of USDs, helping China continue its high exports riding on a cheap Renminbi...

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LINKS:

James Saft, NYT 17 Sep., `Japan Plays a Game that Others Win`

Old Country

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Japan celebrates 20 September as "Respect for the Aged" day - its a national holiday.

This summer there have been numerous reports about "missing" centenarians, and about officials from municipalities and  local governments going around checking on the elderly. The news made headlines for a few days before disappearing into the back pages. This is a growing problem in a rapidly aging nation - 23% of the population is 65 or over; by 2055, the government predicts, half the population will be pensioners.

Japan is also home to some of the most vigorous old folks in the world. It is home to one Mr.Keizo Miura who celebrated his 99th birthday in 2008, by skiing down a glacier in the French Alps. His son, Yuichiro, at 70 became the oldest man to climb Mount Everest. Then there is the physician and writer Shigeaki Hinohara, who continues to be very active at 99...

Here is an interesting article on the topic from yesterday's Japan Times: "Aging Through The Ages" by Michael Hoffman.

Turns out that "respect for the aged" is a fairly recent concept .  Not too long ago, before the Meiji Reforms, it was nothing out of the ordinary for folks to abandon their aged parents on mountain-tops - there is still a hill in Nagano called "Oba-sute" (literally 'throw-granny')! This was also the theme of a 1983 movie - The Ballard of Narayama.


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LINKS

"Aging Through The Ages" - Michael Hoffman, Japan Times (12 Sep. 2010) - http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/fl20100912x1.html

Order of Culture - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_Culture

Rare Earths vs. Common Sense

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There has been an interesting new move on the chessboard of world trade & politics.

Advanced economies have been hoping stay ahead by maintaining their lead in innovation & technology; by keeping the know-how and copyrights tightly guarded on one hand, and outsourcing their grunt-work to emerging economies, on the other. It is now turning out that some of the basic raw materials required for hi-tech - the rare earths - can be used as a potent bargaining tool in international trade.

'Rare Earths' is a strange term. They refer to 17 elements of the periodic table that are not actually 'rare'. Some of these elements are a lot more abundant than, say, lead or silver. But, as in the case of all metals, it takes a good deal of effort to excavate, mine and produce them, and what has been happening since 1990 is that China has been positioning itself as the dominant player in the Rare Earth Metals (REM) market.

In 1990 China ramped up its REM production & output from mines & foundries in Inner Mongolia (eg. Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth (Group) Hi-Tech Co). Then, over the next twenty years it successfully flooded the world markets with REMs, running most of the other REM producers out of business (in USA, Australia). China now has 97% of the market-share and calls itself the "OPEC of rare earth metals."

The analogy with OPEC and oil is rather apt. Easy availability of REMs has been one reason for the recent spurt in manufacture of more 'eco-friendly' and commercially viable hybrid cars (each Toyota Prius uses 25 pounds of REMs), solar panels, fuel-cells etc., Just when the future of the so-called "green" technology looked promising, China announced that it was cutting down the production of REMs due to "environmental concerns".

Last month China cut its export quotas for rare earth by 72 percent for the second half of this year. Shipments will now be capped at 7,976 metric tons, down from 28,417 tons for the same period a year ago. The sharp decline of the export quota will cause a shortage of around 20,000 tons of rare earth for international users this year.

China is also considering banning the export of yttrium (used in color TV tubes and to halt corrosion in steel), terbium (used in lasers and semi-conductors), and dysprosium (used in high temperature magnets that are required for electric motors in vehicles). Now, as the prices shoot up and the hi-tech companies struggle to survive in a competitive market, China is effectively using REMs as a bargaining tool. The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said last week that while China has used a "technology for market" strategy before—offering foreign companies low labor costs and access to its fast-growing market—"now we have the expression 'technology for resources.'

Where does India stand here?

Out of the total world production of 127,000 tonnes (2007), China produced 120,000 tonnes and India, at 2nd postion, produced 1700 tonnes (1.3%). We don't seem to have a significant presence in the manufacture of semiconductors or "green" high-tech goods.

It is also very unlikely that the government-run company Indian Rare Earths Ltd., would have anticipated this move in Chinese Checkers and positioned itself as a alternate source for REMs. The company website itself is outdated, and studded with self-congratulatory messages - "IREL is making profit since 1997-98 with its sales turnover reaching a peak exceeding Rs. 3600 million in 2006-07, with export component of above Rs. 1000 million (~US$ 21m)."

Looking back it does seem that we lacked  the common sense to anticipate and prepare for this opportunity. Perhaps this is what is called "Kupa-manduka Nyaya" in Sanskrit – the rationale of a frog-in-a-well...what a pity! :(

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Some REMs and their Uses

• Yttrium - used in color TV tubes and to halt corrosion in steel
• Terbium - used in lasers and semi-conductors
• Dysprosium - used in high temperature magnets that are required for electric motors in vehicles.
• Molybdenum - additive to create specialty steel products.
• Indium – required for products as LCD (liquid crystal display) televisions. Price hike - 8.5 times (2002-2009)
• Tungsten- which is used to make light-bulb filaments and increase the hardness and strength of steel, rose 4.7-fold during the same period.
• Neodymium -
• Europium -
• Cerium -
• Lanthanum -

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LINKS / REFERENCES

Rare Metal Mining - http://www.raremetalmining.com/?p=269

China, Japan Debate Restrictions on Rare Earth Exports -- August 30, 2010 People's Daily Online

China Defends Control of Rare Earth Exports as Move to Protect Environment Bloomberg News - Aug 29, 2010 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-29/china-defends-control-of-rare-earth-exports-as-move-to-protect-environment.html

China to Globe: “No More Rare Earth” --- Bruce Krasting on 08/29/2010 http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-globe-%E2%80%9Cno-more-rare-earth%E2%80%9D

China Dangles Rare-Earth Resources to Investors -- WSJ 16 Aug 2010

 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748703321004575427050544485366.html

China Corners the Rare Earth Metals Market Anti-competitive Policies may Create Global Monopoly -- Shar Adams -- Epoch Times Aug 31, 2009 http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/21812/

Japan goes prospecting for rare metals -- Hisane Masaki 21 Jun 2007 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/japan/if21dh01.html

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NEWS UPDATES

* Amid Tension, China Blocks Vital Exports to Japan (NYT 22 Sep 2010) - URL - http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/business/global/23rare.html

* Fallout of the Trawler-Crisis on Chinese REM Exports to Japan (25 Sep 2010, Asahi Shimbun)
Prosecutors to release Chinese trawler captain URL - http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201009240209.html 

...From November, Showa Denko KK will jack up prices fourfold for cerium abrasives used to polish substrates in liquid crystal display panels.

A prolonged ban would have also affected automobile and appliance manufacturers. An executive of a major trading company said Toyota Motor Corp. uses about half of the rare earth imports to Japan for hybrid vehicle motors.

Mitsubishi Motors Corp. plans to double production of the i-MiEV electric vehicle next year, while Nissan Motor Co. will begin selling its Leaf electric vehicle in December. One big fear concerning China's export ban was the supply of cerium, a metal used in LC flat screen TVs, sales of which have been leading Japan's economic recovery.

Tsutomu Toichi, senior managing director and chief executive researcher at the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, said the fallout from the trawler incident underscores the dangers in depending on a single nation for rare resources. "The government should use this as an opportunity to consider creating a stockpiling structure," Toichi said. Some companies are trying to move away from the dependence on China for rare earth metals. Panasonic Corp. and Sharp Corp. are turning to other materials and developing new technologies.The trading companies Sojitz Corp. and Sumitomo Corp. have heightened efforts to mine rare earth metals in Vietnam and Kazakhstan.

* Japan seeks new options on rare earths (BBC 10 Nov. 2010)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11677802

Swami Vivekananda & Japan

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Many monsoons' ago, a schoolteacher at Hyderabad had narrated to us an anecdote from the life of Swami Vivekananda. The monk was traveling around India with a friend from Japan, who remarked that the country seemed to be a very rich indeed. After a while, when the visitor kept on repeating the same thing, Vivekananda asked him, "Why do you keep reiterating the same thing, even after seeing for yourself the destitution and poverty all around??". The visitor replied, "Yes, but I also see so many young men sitting around idling their time away...you wouldn't see that in a poor country, would you?"

I don't know if the story was concocted to make a point, but it is a fact that Vivekananda had friends from Japan, and it is also well documented that he had pretty strong things to say about India, after his visit to Japan in 1893.

Vivekananda travelled to Japan on his way to the Parliament of World Religions at Chicago. He reached the port city of Nagasaki in mid-1893, and boarded a steamer to Kobe. From here to took the land route to Yokohama, visiting along the way, the three big cities of Osaka, Kyoto and Tokyo. He called the Japanese "one of the cleanest people on earth", and was impressed not only by neatness of their streets and dwellings but also by their movements, attitudes and gestures, all of which he found to be "picturesque".

The visit happened at a time when the Japanese themselves would not take "picturesque" as a compliment. A band of youngsters - the Meiji reformers - had just completed the first phase of a major transformation of everything in Japan. Anything that was traditional - religion, social structure, education, government - was being considered decadent, and was being replaced with Western models.

This was also a period of rapid military build-up in Japan - a prelude to the Sino-Japanese War (1894) and the Russo-Japanese War (1904). These preparations did not escape the attention of Vivekananda, who wrote - "The Japanese seem now to have fully awakened themselves to the necessity of the present times. They have now a thoroughly organized army equipped with guns which one of their own officers has invented and which is said to be second to none. Then, they are continually increasing their navy". About the industrial progress he observed, "The match factories are simply a sight to see, and they are bent upon making everything they want in their own country.".

Contrasting the rapid progress of Japan with the situation back in India, he urged his countrymen - the "offspring of centuries of superstition and tyranny" - to come out of their narrow holes and have a look abroad -

"Only I want that numbers of our young men should pay a visit to Japan and China every year. Especially to the Japanese, India is still the dreamland of everything high and good. And you, what are you? … talking twaddle all your lives, vain talkers, what are you? Come, see these people, and then go and hide your faces in shame. A race of dotards, you lose your caste if you come out! Sitting down these hundreds of years with an ever-increasing load of crystallized superstition on your heads, for hundreds of years spending all your energy upon discussing the touchableness of untouchableness of this food or that, with all humanity crushed out of you by the continuous social tyranny of ages – what are you? And what are you doing now? … promenading the sea-shores with books in your hands – repeating undigested stray bits of European brainwork, and the whole soul bent upon getting a thirty rupee clerkship, or at best becoming a lawyer – the height of young India’s ambition – and every student with a whole brood of hungry children cackling at his heels and asking for bread! Is there not water enough in the sea to drown you, books, gowns, university diplomas, and all?"

Yet, on his return to India in February 1897, when he was asked by a correspondent from The Hindu, "Is it your wish that India should become like Japan?", Vivekananda's response was unequivocal - "Decidedly not", he said, "India should continue to be what she is. How could India ever become like Japan, or any nation for the matter of that? In each nation, as in music, there is a main note, a central theme, upon which all others turn. Each nation has a theme: everything else is secondary. India's theme is religion. Social reform and everything else are secondary. Therefore India cannot be like Japan. It is said that when 'the heart breaks', then the flow of thought comes. India's heart must break, and the flow of spirituality will come out. India is India. We are not like the Japanese, we are Hindus. India's very atmosphere is soothing. I have been working incessantly here, and amidst this work I am getting rest. It is only from spiritual work that we can get rest in India. If your work is material here, you die of — diabetes!"

More than a hundred years later, the question is perhaps still open - when will India`s heart break?

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REFERENCES / LINKS:

Paranjape Makarand (2005), Penguin Swami Vivekananda Reader, Penguin India 2005, isbn 143032542, pages = 246-248

The Hindu (1997) The Abroad And the Problems At Home (The Hindu, Madras, February, 1897), Wikisource - The Complete Works of Swami Vivekananda/Volume 5/Interviews/The Abroad And The Problems At Home, URL- http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Complete_Works_of_Swami_Vivekananda/Volume_5/Interviews/The_Abroad_And_The_Problems_At_Home
Life Timeline - http://www.thecircleoffire.com/vivekanandatimeline.html

Nikhilananda Swami (1953), Vivekananda - A Biography URL - http://unirs.mywibes.com/Books/Biography/Biography_Of_Swami_Vivekananda

Sen Amiya (2005), The Indispensible Vivekananda - An Anthology of Our Times, Permanent Black, New Delhi, 2005

Zangger's Club

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After securing the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) approval, India has signed civilian nuclear cooperation agreements with states as diverse as Britain, France, Russia, Kazakhstan, Namibia, Angola and most recently, Canada. Yet, if US and French civilian nuclear cooperation with India is to be realised an Indo-Japanese pact is essential simply because some the leaders in nuclear-power technology are Japanese joint-ventures like GE-Hitachi and Toshiba-Westinghouse.

So, what is it that links the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) and Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to issues related to civilian nuclear tech-cooperation? The answer - Zangger Committee.

The Zangger Committee, also known as the Nuclear Exporters Committee, sprang from Article III.2 of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) which entered into force on March 5, 1970. Under the terms of Article III.2 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards must be applied to nuclear exports. It is basically an informal club maintains and updates a list of equipment that may only be exported if safeguards are applied to the recipient facility (called the "Trigger List" because such exports trigger the requirement for safeguards); and allows members to coordinate on nuclear export issues.

NSG members are also Zangger committee members - except for Brazil, New Zealand and Ukraine. I wonder why...

Other interesting questions:

What does the "trigger list" contain?

How have the the NSG members with nuclear weapon stockpiles (US, UK, Russia, China etc.,) managed to persuade the others to toe their line? What were the inducements, incentives or , to quote Don Corleone, "offers which they could not refuse"?

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LINKS -

Beyond the Mushroom Cloud, Harsh V Pant, Indian Express 25 Aug 2010 - http://www.indianexpress.com/news/beyond-the-mushroom-cloud/664501/0

Statement on Civilian Nuclear Cooperation with India - http://www.armscontrol.org/system/files/20080906_Final_NSG_Statement.pdf

Zangger Committee - Mission Statement - http://www.zanggercommittee.org/Mission/Seiten/default.aspx

FAS: Membership of ZanggerC and NSG - http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/nsg/member.htm

IAEA - Treaty for Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (22 April 1970) - http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc140.pdf

RELATED ARTICLES:

Pakistan's Effect on Iran - Prakash Shah & Ramesh Thakur in Japan Times, 29 Aug., 2010 -

Beautiful, Lovely Data

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The amazing world of data-visualization created by David McCandless.




If you needed any reminding that absolute numbers need to be put in the right perspective with relative figures...this is it!
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MORE LINKS
Information is Beautiful - Ideas, Issues, Knowledge Visualized! - http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/

Tezuka's Buddha

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Anywhere else in the world, "comics" is what children read before they get to the 'real' stuff. Not so in Japan. Over here, flipping through illustrated books is not just for kids - its a serious adult obsession. Latest tomes of Manga are arguably the fastest moving items in any bookshop or kiosk, and they cover a wide, wide range of tastes.

 

At least one series that ought to be popular in India (but isn't) is the classic 8-part  "Buddha", created by none other than the 'Father of Manga', Osamu Tezuka. It is by far the most easily readable & comprehensive account of the life and times of Gautama Buddha, narrated with such zest and aplomb that its nearest competitor - the Amar Chitra Katha version - seems utterly shallow and superficial.

 

Since the series was originally meant for a Japanese audience, it does use a lot culture-specific similies & analogies that may be lost on foreigners ( juku cram-schools or hyoutan-tsugi comic relief's). Also at times the pace of story-telling does slack and slip into absurdities (eg. blood transfusion being improvised by B) but, on the whole, the series does convey, very effectively, a realistic, down-to-earth, human account of the trails & travails of the Sakya prince.

 

Worth reading.

 

 

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The cast of characters in Osamu's Buddha (<*> indicates new characters created by the author):

 

CHAPRA* - slave adopted by Gen. BUDAI of Kosala kingdom

TATTA* - urchin

NARADATTA - Disciple of Sage ASITA, condemned for wasteful killing to a life of a wild savage

 

PAJAPATI - B's step-mom

BANDAKA - Acearcher, wounds Chapra in an unfair contest; briefly B's archery tutor.

ZIWAKA, Dr.* - Kapilavastu's royal phycisian

MIGAILA* - bandit woman saved by Tatta & Siddhartha's first crush

 

YASHODARA - Neice of the Koliya king and B's bride (other suitors - PUKSATEE from Chaiti, KACHANNA, BANDAKA fm Koliya, BERATTA fm Magadha)

RAHULA - B&Y's son; means "obstacle"

 

PRASANAJIT - Kosala king

VIDURAKA - Presanajit's son

DHEPA - son of Kosalan warrior, turned into a monk of the Samana sect

5 ascetics from the Forest of Trials in URUVELA - ONDANYA, BADDIYA, VAPPA, MAHANAMA, JANUSSONI

CHANNA - B's servant and KANTHAKA - B's horse, help him across ANOMA river at Kapilavastu's border, to a village named ANUPIYA

 

DEVADATTA - son of Bandaka

ANANDA- Devadatta's setp-brother; raised by wolves

GHAGRA - sheltered Devadatta; old hag

 

BIMBISARA aka SENIA- Ruler of Magadha and one of Buddha's earliest fans

SUJATA - village girl by Niranjanariver who offers milk to a famished B

NATTAPUTTA - ascetic

ALARA, UDDAKA - sages; the former from Vaishali

 

VIRUDHAKA - Son of Kosala king Prasenajit Sakya maidservant (who P though was a royal) aka "crystal Prince"

AJATASATTU - son of Bimbisara; destined to kill his father

SANJAYA-the-skeptic's followers - SARIPUTTA and MOGGALLANA (later B's disciples)

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LINKS -

 

Wikipedia - Buddha- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buddha_(manga)

Amazon.com - http://www.amazon.com/Buddha-1-Kapilavastu-Osamu-Tezuka/dp/193223456X

OTHER MANGA -

• The Economist (29 Aug 2010) - Japanese Cartoons: Professor to the Rescue- http://www.economist.com/node/16886045?story_id=16886045
• The Manga Guide to Calculus - http://nostarch.com/mg_calculus.htm

Shipping Crude Oil to Japan

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When it comes to energy consumption, Japan is perhaps one of the most vulnerable among developed economies. It is only 16% self-sufficient in energy; 50% of its energy requirements is met by oil imports from the Middle East, and each day of the year it imports about 5 million barrels!

How does this oil reach Japan? How many tankers does it take to transport this huge volume of crude, over a distance of 8000+ km, though some of the diciest sea-lanes in the world?

There are approximately 3500 tankers available in the international oil transportation market. So far its unclear how many of these are directly owned by Japanese firms but perhaps one can assume that most of the oil is transported in lease-hired vessels, and that most of them would be the largest available, since they offer the best economies of scale.

This brings the tanker-count to 435 VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) which account for one-third of all the oil carried. Each VLCC can carry about 300,000 deadweight tons of crude oil, which comes to about 2 million barrels.

So each day of the year, it takes just two or three VLCCs arriving at a Japanese port, to supply enough crude for the daily oil requirements of the country.

Not so bad as I imagined...

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Note 1: Obviously the calculation is rather simplistic, and, well, crude. It does not account for refining, marketing or distribution. In January 2008, Japan had 4.7 million bbl/d of oil refining capacity at 31 facilities,  and this was the second-largest refining capacity in the Asia-Pacific region after China. The refining sector in Japan has been characterized by overcapacity in recent years, as domestic petroleum product consumption has stagnated.

Note 2: Japan maintains government controlled oil stocks to ensure against a supply interruption. Total strategic oil stocks in Japan were 328 million barrels at the end of April 2008, according to the EIA. Currently, private refiners in Japan are required to maintain petroleum product stocks worth 70 days of consumption, which imposes large additional costs to these companies.

Note 3: What can you get out of one barrel of crude oil? From a standard barrel of oil containing 44 US gallons of crude oil, it seems you can extract 44 gallons of petroleum products! (why? how?) Taking 1 US Gallon= 3.785 Liters, one barrel of 159 Liters can yield -

• Motor gasoline: 19.65 gallons (~47%) = 74 L
• Diesel / Distillate fuel: 10.03 gallons (~24%) = 38 L
• Jet fuel: 4.07 (~10%) = 15 L
• Residual oil: 1.72 gallons (~4%) = 6.5 L
• Other bye-products (still gas, petroleum coke, liquified refinery gas, asphalt and various oils for lubricants, kerosine, waaxes, etc..: 6.53 gallons (~15%) = 24.7 L

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REFERENCES / LINKS

• Rodrigue, JP (2004). Straits, Passages and Chokepoints: A Maritime Geostrategy of Petroleum Distribution. Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York 2004. URL Accessed on 13 Aug. 2010 - http://www.erudit.org/revue/cgq/2004/v48/n135/011797ar.pdf
• EIA - Japan - Energy Profile - http://www.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=JA
• EIA Background Note - http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Japan/Background.html  
• SourceWatch - Japan - http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Japan's_oil_industry
• Crude Oil: A Breakdown of Refined Volumes - http://www.r3sciences.com/crude_oil_a_breakdown_of_re.html

The Doctrine of Mastery Inactivity

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Interesting articles that appeared over the past few days, about the Indian government's self-inflicted paralysis of purposeful action, in Kashmir, international diplomacy and domestic governance:

C. Rajamohan (Indian Express)

• Sino-American Rivalry: Failure & Opportunity for India Military Diplomacy - http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Sino-American-rivalry--Failure---opportunity-for-Indian-military-diplomacy/658535/

Kishore Mahbubani (Indian Express)

• Concessions to Victory - http://www.indianexpress.com/news/concessions-to-victory/650535/

Siddharth Varadrajan (The Hindu):

• The Only Package Kashmir Needs is Justice - http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/article551897.ece
• http://svaradarajan.blogspot.com/

Meghnad Desai (Indian Express):

• Denial is Failure - http://www.indianexpress.com/news/denial-is-failure/658388/
• Making the Change - http://www.indianexpress.com/news/making-the-change/657487/

Cicada Summer

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Its another summer of Cicadas.

On almost each and every tree are hundreds of perfectly formed, golden, empty shells clinging on to the crevices on the bark. Each with a neat slit on its back. Is is surprising enough that any creature can discard an intricate body like this as if it were pair of socks...

But today I was astounded to know that each Cicada nymph, after it emerges from its egg, remains for about 17 years underground, before it emerges on a fine summer day. It then climbs a tree, moults, mates and dies in just two weeks!

Why 17 years? What could possibly be the evolutionary advantage?

So far, even the scientists have no idea...

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REFERENCES / LINKS

Richard Attenborough's Life in the Undergrowth: Amazing Cicada Life Cycle - BBC Wildlife - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjLiWy2nT7U  (Great Video!)

Life Cycle - http://www.riverwoodsrpc.org/Invasive/PeriodicalCicadas.html

Judith Hunt - http://www.huntjudith.com/science_nature.html

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Some more summer pics -

Rail Coach Exports

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Between 1968 and 1980, India's Integral Coach Factory (ICF) at Perumbur,  exported railway coaches to a number of countries. According to a report on ICF's Golden Jubilee celebrations (2004), a total of 244 broad-gauge coaches had been exported to Taiwan alone.

When and why did these exports cease to South East Asian countries?

 Still trying to figure this out...

------------------------------------------------------

LINKS

• Integtral Coach Factory, Perambur- Official Website -- http://www.icf.gov.in/icf/indexhome.html
• Official Brochure - Indian Railways (2007) - http://infrastructure.gov.in/pdf/brochure_railway.pdf
• Bloomberg BusinessWeek Snapshot of ICF -http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=78973736
• MVRC Rake Fleet Details (Akshay Marathe) - http://sites.google.com/site/mrvcholdings/Home
• Indian Railways Fans Club (IRFC) - http://www.irfca.org/index.html
• IRFC Resources - http://www.irfca.org/faq/faq-web.html
• Planning Commission - 2nd Five Year Plan on Transport -http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/planrel/fiveyr/2nd/2planch21.html
• News - ICH Chugs into Golden Jubilee - The Hindu, Oct 2004 - http://www.hindu.com/2004/10/03/stories/2004100306420600.htm
• News - increase in capacity to 1093 coaches in 2005 -http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/perambur-coach-factory-to-increase-capacity/225016/
• Discussion - Indian Railways Thread on Bharat Rakshak - http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3086&start=200&view=print
• Feature - ICF on a Roll - Frontline, April, 2003 -http://hinduonnet.com/fline/fl2008/stories/20030425004210700.htm
• ICF - Major Achievements - http://ekikrat.in/Integral-Coach-Factory-ICF
•  RailWorld by Prakash Tandulkar - http://trainweb.org/railworld/
• Basic, informal, info on Taiwan's Railways - http://www.taiwanrailways.com/

Faces

Seeing faces in strange places...

"Wait! Don't shoot!", screamed Mr.Draincover..

 Beer-can Devil

Mr. Nosey Loo

Hungry Pillar

Anatomy of a Tokyo Commute

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These days, I find myself amidst the largest commuting population in the world...

Greater Tokyo covers an area of 16,400 sq.km and is populated by over 42 million people.  Within this National Capital Region of Japan, runs what is often called the `most extensive, complex and efficient` mass-rapid transport system anywhere. 282 stations servicing 14 different railway lines handle about 8 million passengers on an average working day!

In comparison, Mumbai suburban rail carries about 7 million passengers everyday, using a fleet of overland trains (EMUs).  The entire network of Indian Railways, with 108805 kms of tracks and 16,021 train runs daily, carries only 14.84 million passengers every day (2007). Now that should help us put the Tokyo suburban rail network in perspective!

As one among the eight-million, my itinerary is relatively straightforward. Compared to a lot of people who multiple lines to reach their destination, I just use two: one of the newest - the Tsukuba-Akihabara Express (TX) Line and the oldest - Ginza Line, a part of which happens to be the `first subway line in the Orient` (Estd. 1927).

Every morning, I set off from my home in Tsukuba Science City and after traveling by bus, two trains, and a couple of stretches of brisk walks, I reach my workplace at Kasumigaseki in central Tokyo. A distance of about 70 km (one way), covered in about two hours` time, spending a total of Yen 2500 (~Rs. 1200).

A break-up of the daily itinerary:

• 07:14 AM - Bus No. C10 from Ichinoya Shukusha (Dormitories) to Tsukuba Centre [Yen 260 - subsidized by a student pass]
• 07:32 AM - Tsukuba Centre; Walk down to the adjacent TX station 
• 07:40 AM - TX Semi-Rapid to Asakusa [Yen 1100]
• 08:40 AM - Come out of Asakusa TX Station (187 steps up to street-level; option to use escalators/lifts). 15 min. walk to the Ginza Line (2 crossings) Tawaramachi Station (41 steps below street level; no escalators/lifts)
• 08:55 AM - Ginza Line subway train to Toranomon (~ 8km), [Yen 190]; 
• 09:15 AM - Toranomon Station; 10 min to walk to the 8th floor office of ADBI at the 33-floor Kasumigaseki Building

In the evening (usually after 7:20PM), I take the same lines but with a slight change in the Ginza Line stations. I get off a little earlier, at Suehirocho Station, to walk to Akihabara TX station - just to try and get a seat on the TX leaving for Tsukuba.

At the end of the day, the very thought of dangling or standing for more than an hour in a crowded train, is just too daunting!

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TX ticketing machine (also recharges smartcards)

TX train entrance to platform: almost seamless

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LINKS - 

• TX - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsukuba_Express (one of the fastest subway trains: top speed 130 kmph; uses dual voltage AC/DC trains to avoid magnetic interference to JMA labs!)Official Brochure - http://www.mir.co.jp/english_guide.pdf
  JR Discussion Page - http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=322407
• Tokyo Metro Homepage - http://www.tokyometro.jp/global/en/index.html
• Tokyo Metro Map - http://www.tokyometro.jp/global/en/service/pdf/routemap_en.pdf
• Tokyo Commuter Hell - http://tonymcnicol.com/2008/12/18/tokyo-commuter-hell/
• McNiol, Tony (2008), Commuterland, Credit Suisse Bulletin 2007 - http://www.tonymcnicol.com/PDFs/commuters.pdf
• Rush Hour in Tokyo, The Economist - http://moreintelligentlife.com/story/rush-hour-tokyo
• Indian Railways Brochure (2007) - http://infrastructure.gov.in/pdf/brochure_railway.pdf

Satellite Navigation & QZS "Michibiki"

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Japan is set to launch a new navigation satellite called "Michibiki". Its also called a Quasi Zenith Satellite (QZS) system because, unlike the usual Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites, this one is to have an orbit similar to the geo-stationary satellites, which stay about 36,000kms away but appear to be stationary with reference to a point on the earth surface.

The question is - how is the QZS Michibiki different from other satellite navigation systems which are set to break the US dominance over the GPS market?

Russia is coming up with GLONASS; European Union's  Galileo system is be operational by 2014; China's Beidou system is expected to be usable by 2020, and India is expected to launch its IRNS system, starting 2011.

At present the Global Satellite Navigation Systems is dominated by NAVSTAR of the United States. Such systems use a constellation of 20-30 satellites to provide global coverage in such a way that, in theory, it would be possible to know your exact bearings using a hand-held Gobal Positioning System (GPS) device that picks signals from satellites located in the Middle Earth Orbit (MEO: 10-15,000km). GPS devices detect pulses from at least three of these GSNS satellites to triangulate any given location.

The problem with the American system is that access is not guaranteed in hostile situations. Also it seems to be less effective in mountainous terrain or inside "urban canyons", where it may be difficult to get direct signals from at least three satellites. So the advantage of having a NavSat permanently overhead in the geostationary orbit makes a lot of sense.

But one QZS-Michibiki by itself seems to be of limited use. Perhaps that is the reason why it is being promoted as something that can "enhance" existing NAVSTAR-GPS services available in Japan..
 
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LINKS:

JAXA's Michibiki Page - http://www.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/qzss/index_e.html

QZ Vision - http://qz-vision.jaxa.jp/  (countdown ongoing)
 
GNSS - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_navigation_satellite_system
 
QZSS - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-Zenith_Satellite_System
 
IRNSS - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRNSS

Nurturing Madness

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It is almost a month now since a college lecturer in Kerala had his hand chopped by Muslim fanatics, for framing an exam question about a literary character, whose name happened to be Mohammad.

Despite the outrage and anguish triggered by this incident, the fact remains that the police are still on the "look out" for the main suspects. Perhaps they will never be caught, or even if they are arrested, the court case is likely to drag on for a couple of decades.

Is there a pattern or method to this madness? Are these merely the actions of a handful of bigots? Or is there some truth in the allegation that the compulsions of coalition politics is allowing criminals to get away lightly? - especially if the criminals happen to be members of the Hindu rightwing or Muslim religious organisations? 

While we wait for the truth to emerge, it is useful to remember an acidic verse penned by Fehmida Riaz about how India is beginning to resemble like Pakistan:

‘Tum bilkul hum jaise nikle?
Ab tak kahaan chhupe thay bhai?
Wo ghaamadpan wo jaahilpan jisme humne sadi gawaee
Ab pahonchi hai dwaar tumharey?
Arey badhaee, bahot badhaee.’

(And so you too turned out like us brother? Similarly stupid, wallowing in the past - where were you hiding until now? The easy ignorance, the rabid delinquency we nurtured for decades [in Pakistan], is knocking at your doors now? Congratulations, many congratulations.)

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LINKS:

Wikipedia - 2010 Hand-chopping Incident in Kerala
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_hand_chopping_incident_in_Kerala

The Waning Romance of an Idea By Jawed Naqvi, DAWN Thursday, 29 Jul, 2010
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/columnists/jawed-naqvi-the-waning-romance-of-an-idea-970

Not in my Country by Tavleen Singh, Indian Express, Sun Aug 01 2010
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/not-in-my-country/654391/

The Verma Test

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A former Chief Justice of India J.S. Verma, made a very interesting observation recently. While explaining the challenge of institution-building, he said, "An institution can rise to its true strength, and truly play the role the founding fathers mandated for it, only if it is led by a person who has no past, and no expectation (of any reward) from anybody in the future.”.

Thankfully, my favourite newspaper editor, Shekhar Gupta, was close at hand, not only to mark the significance of this observation, but also to set it in perspective in an op-ed titled, "The Power of One".

SG's focus is on state institutions that have had a strong impact on the Indian polity - the Supreme Court and the Election Commission. But the "Verma Test" seems to be just as valid when it comes to  understanding why some IIT's have become exceptional (eg., P. K Kelkar's role in building IIT Kanpur) or why institutions like IRMA or NDDB have hit the doldrums.

Worth reading!    :)

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REFERENCE:

Gupta, Shekhar (2010). The Power of One, Indian Express, 31 July 2010
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/the-power-of-one/654144/

Trip to Kamakura & Yokohama

View Yokohama-Kamakura in a larger map

Trailing the Tigers

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I was a bit shocked when I realised yesterday that within the area occupied by one of the tiniest states in India - Goa - you can fit in two Singapore's, two Hong Kong's, and still have more than a 100 sq.km to spare.

Before trying to figure out why, in the whole of South Asia, there isn't a single world-class port or international trading hub, a more basic question: despite their late start, how did a some countries in South East Asia Asia become so prosperous?

In his book, "Innovation in East Asia", Michael Hobday gets down to brasstacks - the firm/company level - to try and explain explain how four "Tiger economies" - South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong - were able to upgrade their technology and their marketing to compete in increasingly sophisticated products and services.

He uses the term - latecomer firms - to describe manufacturing companies that face two sets of competitive disadvantages in attempting to compete for export markets - (1) they are technologically dislocated from main sources of tech and R&D (local labs & universities being poorly equipped), and are (2) dislocated from mainstream international markets & sophisticated users.

The book was written in the early 1990s, so it is a bit dated in the sense that such firms may no longer exist - local labs are stronger, and regional markets may now be more lucrative. But it does give you an idea of how the firms evolved in each of these four, newly industrialised economies (NIE's).

It was no doubt their good fortune to be sitting on the right side of the cold-war fence during the turbulent 60's and 70's. Sitting under the US umbrella not gave them a good dose of enforced political stability but also free access to Western technology, capital and markets during their formative years. The respective national governments also played no small role in getting their priorities right - basic education, healthcare, housing, and macro-economic stability.

Even then, fact is that not all American allies in East Asia prospered. Even within the four NIE's patterns of learning and development varied -

SOUTH KOREA

Under the military dictatorship of Gen.Park Chung-hee (1961-1979) took a leaf from the Japanese Zaibatsu strategy and promoted large corporations - the Chaebol's - especially in niche areas like heavy industries, chemical industries, steel, construction and ship-building. The national education budget shot up from 2.4% (1951) to 22% (1981), skilled craftsmen were treated on par with engineers and scientists, all of whom were exempt from the compulsory military service. As a result, companies like Samsung, which began as a trading company dealing in fruit and dried-fish,went on to become world leaders in the manufacture of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips.

Home-grown Champs:  Samsung, Daewoo, LuckyGoldstar

TAIWAN

In 1949, this island, smaller than Kerala and the oldest Japanese colony in the region, found itself flooded with 2 million refugees from mainland China. Most of these newcomers were soldiers, and, fortuitously, a good number of intellectual & business elites fleeing Mao's communists with their moneybags in tow. Gen.Chaing Kai-shek's KMT preferred to encourage a multitude of small companies (SMEs) rather than large corporations.

In 1985, the average SME size was just 24 workers, aAnd they produced everything from bicycles and footwear to sewing machines and high-end electronics. To help these firms, the government set up a range of effective institutions - Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), Institute of Information Technology (III), Electronic Research Services Orgn (ERSO, under ITRI).

The entrepreneurs then went on to exploit FDI to their advantage,eventually making TNCs dependent on their manufacturing skills and their highly productive engineering. Local companies reversed the pattern of TNC exploitation, often complained of in Latin America and other developing areas, by supplying low-cost OEM/ODM services, components, systems and complete products.

Home-grown Champs: Acer, Tatung, Datatech (world's largest motherboard producer), EliteGroup, Mitac, Cal-Comp (calculator champ)

SINGAPORE

Even before it parted ways with Malaysia in 1965, Singapore's Economic Development Board (EDB) took a number of steps to woo TNC's. It allowed a level of foreign control inconceivable in either South Korea or Taiwan. While setting up its first industrial park at Jurong (1961) it established training institutes and implemented a series of measures for improving education and technical training. Once the training target was achieved it recommended a large increase in wages to attract technology-intensive manufacturers, moving the less lucrative firms into a "Growth Triangle" in neighboring countries.

By 1990, more than 3000 TNCs were thriving in the city-state, employing one of the most highly educated, ethnically diverse workers, living in the second-most densely populated places on Earth.

HONG KONG

Unlike the other three NIE's, this former British entrepot, started out with a laissez-faire approach. The leaders here knew the city born out of the earliest "unequal treaties" would return to China in 1997. So the government just let the traders and entrepreneurs do what they knew best. The big opportunities came after Deng Xiao-Ping initiated his reforms in 1978. Joint ventures (JVs) with mainland China shot-up from less than 100 in 1980 to nearly 40,000 in 1992. The neighboring Guandong province expanded at around 30% in the early 1990s fueld by investments from Hong Kong.

In Hong Kong too official support bodies did their bit - especially the Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC), Vocational Training Council (VTC), TDC and IDC.

Home-grown Champs: VTech, KongWah (flatscreen TVs), RJP (palmtops), Varitronics (touch-sensitive, portable hand-heldsystems)
 
 
After reading Hobday's book, one cannot help concluding that the biggest advantage these four NIE's had was that they all had pragmatic, competent leadership that shielded itself from the divisive pressures of populist electoral politics...

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REFERENCES

Hobday, Michael (1995), Innovation in East Asia: The Challenge to Japan, Edward Elgar Publishing Company, USA, 1995

Prof. Mike Hobday - CENTRIM, Brighton, UK - http://centrim.mis.brighton.ac.uk/people/a-z/mgh1

Exuberance of Verbosity

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This is one thing I've always, always wanted to figure out -- what the heck was Antony Gonzalves trying to say??

In "Amar Akbar Antony", a popular Hindi movie from the late 1970's, Amitabh Bachchan, playing the role of a maverick named Antony Gonzalves, pops out of an Easter egg and sings a song. Its a mixture of English and Hindi, and delightful, unadulterated nonsense.

The Hindi lyrics fits into the overall plot and makes some sense - Mr. Gonzalves, the 'party entertainer' is trying to woo a girl on the sly. But what is he trying to say in English??

Here it is - gibberish deciphered:

"Wait, wait...WAIT! You see the whole country of the system is juxtapositioned by the haemoglobin in the atmosphere because you are a sophisticated rhetoritian intoxicated by the exuberance of your own verbosity!!"


"You see such extenuated circumstances coax me to preclude you from such extravagance!"


"You see the coefficient of the linear...is juxtapositioned by the haemoglobin of the atmospheric pressure in the country!"

There is actually a wiki-page dedicated to this song! According to folks-who-know, while Kishore Kumar did the singing, the talking (in English) was by Bachchan himself. And the opening line - "sophisticated rhetorician intoxicated by the exuberance of your own verbosity" is from a speech in the British Parliament by Benjamin Disraeli in 1878!

Where did the song-writer, Anand Bakshi, dig that from?? :)

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LINKS




Movie - Amar, Akbar, Antony - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amar_Akbar_Anthony

The Song - My Name is Antony Gonzalves - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_name_is_Anthony_Gonzalves